WR · DAL · 178 lines since 2023
George Pickens Player Props
Closing consensus lines for George Pickens, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 48% — we make it 36%
- Line 25.5 yds longest rec — we project 28 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 63.5 rec yds — we project 65 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 49%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Receiving yards over 33, under 19 (52 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 24 (51 graded)
- Anytime TD over 15, under 37 (52 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 7 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Short week 5–1 · model 37–35 · Starters out on defense 6–5 · Dome team outdoors 4–3 · Missed tackles 3–6 · Pre-snap motion 3–8 · Explosive plays 8–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Freezing 1–1 · Middle of the field 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 25.5 | 28 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 65 | 52% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 62 | 43% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 65 | 51% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 62 | 48% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 75 | 56% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 25.5 | 31 | 64% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 84 | 61% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 26.5 | 33 | 66% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 78.5 | 88 | 56% / 50% | 78 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 24.5 | 29 | 63% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 75 | 57% / 50% | 130 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 25.5 | 30 | 62% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 76 | 54% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 27.5 | 32 | 61% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 85.5 | 85 | 50% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 55% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 25.5 | 30 | 62% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 80 | 53% / 49% | 88 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 23.5 | 28 | 62% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 68 | 52% / 50% | 146 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 56% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 23.5 | 30 | 65% / 52% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 72 | 56% / 51% | 144 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 55% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 23.5 | 31 | 68% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 74 | 58% / 51% | 79 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 23.5 | 28 | 63% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 67 | 56% / 51% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 65% / 59% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 24.5 | 34 | 71% / 49% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 86 | 66% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 64% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 25.5 | 31 | 65% / 51% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 81 | 57% / 50% | 168 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 54% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 25.5 | 30 | 63% / 49% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 82 | 57% / 50% | 57 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 22.5 | 25 | 58% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 62 | 51% / 50% | 134 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 55% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 22.5 | 24 | 54% / 53% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 46 | 41% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 51% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 41 | 37% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 22.5 | 27 | 65% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 73 | 64% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 66% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 61 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 59 | 44% / 51% | 50 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 69 | 47% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 61 | 50% / 52% | 48 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 72.5 | 77 | 54% / 51% | 89 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 60 | 48% / 51% | 91 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 66 | 54% / 51% | 74 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 11% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 54 | 53% / 51% | 111 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 65% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 65 | 64% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 72% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 80 | 69% / 51% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 67% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 64 | 60% / 52% | 113 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 60 | 58% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 67% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 59 | 58% / 51% | 29 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 66% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 49 | 47% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 56 | 57% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 49 | 51% / 49% | 131 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 46 | 56% / 50% | 195 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 42 | 49% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 41 | 53% / 52% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 47 | 51% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 45 | 49% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 37 | 50% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 47 | 53% / 51% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 54 | 51% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 72 | 64% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 70 | 68% / 50% | 107 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 74% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 57 | 59% / 51% | 130 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 69% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 63 | 55% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 62 | 59% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 41 | 48% / 51% | 127 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 67% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 44.5 | – | – / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 46% | 5 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 61.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 67.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 67.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 67.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 67.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 67.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 78.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 78.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 78.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 78.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 78.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 25.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 72.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 72.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 27.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 85.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 85.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 75.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 75.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 57.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 70.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 70.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 71.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 71.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 71.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 55.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology