WR · PIT · 12 lines since 2023
Germie Bernard Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Germie Bernard, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 20% — we make it 14%
- Line 12.5 yds longest rec — we project 12 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 20.5 rec yds — we project 16 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 30%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 2, under 0 (2 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 0 (2 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 4 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 2–2 · Short week 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 48% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 16 | 43% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 13 | 57% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 36% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 0 | 6% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 2% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 14% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 9.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology