WR · DET · 78 lines since 2023
Isaac TeSlaa Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Isaac TeSlaa, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 20% — we make it 21%
- Line 16.5 yds longest rec — we project 19 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 25.5 rec yds — we project 27 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 32%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 11, under 10 (21 graded)
- Receptions over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 15 (21 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 8 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 4–5 · model 26–21 · Short week 0–3 · Pre-snap motion 1–2 · Starters out on defense 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 27 | 52% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 40% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 48% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 9.0 | 36% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 21 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 15.5 | 12 | 44% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 17 | 38% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 25% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 10 | 46% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 12 | 45% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.3 | 46% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.6 | 44% / 51% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 60% / 67% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 11.5 | 5.4 | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 5.7 | 36% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 3.3 | 31% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 3.3 | 32% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 21% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 12.5 | 0 | 22% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 0 | 19% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 11% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 9.5 | 0 | 27% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 0 | 28% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 40% / 67% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 4.5 | 0 | 35% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 0 | 31% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 30% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 35% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 9.5 | 0 | 30% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 0 | 30% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 15% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 9.5 | 0.9 | 32% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 0.9 | 31% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 18% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 1.1 | 37% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 1.2 | 37% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 17% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 8.5 | 4.2 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 4.3 | 40% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 22% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 12.5 | 3.9 | 30% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 4.0 | 29% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 23% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 6.5 | 0 | 34% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 0 | 34% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 7.5 | – | – / 52% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 10.5 | – | – / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 36% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 17.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 17.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 17.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 25.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 16.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 6.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 6.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 5.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 11.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 9.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology