RB · NYJ · 83 lines since 2023
Isaiah Davis Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Isaiah Davis, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 16% — we make it 20%
- Line 14.5 rush yds — we project 18 (P(over) 58%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 4, under 8 (12 graded)
- Receiving yards over 3, under 6 (9 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 7 (9 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 23 (26 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 5 (6 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 5 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 2–1 · model 32–7 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 2–1 · Short week 0–1 · Light boxes 2–0 · Pre-snap motion 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 16% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 18 | 58% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 6.0 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 22 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 6% | – | void |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | – | void |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 10% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 4.5 | 2.9 | 42% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 3.4 | 34% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 12 | 43% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 25% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 14 | 35% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 8.8 | 45% / 46% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 11 | 62% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 6.5 | 3.6 | 37% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.1 | 37% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 14 | 47% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 9.5 | 4.4 | 24% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 5.2 | 23% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 16% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 8.8 | 42% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 9.5 | 5.5 | 28% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 6.9 | 29% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 8.5 | 44% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 5.4 | 28% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 6.5 | 33% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 12 | 41% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 6.5 | 7.5 | 55% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 11 | 56% / 49% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 16 | 58% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 6.5 | 4.0 | 38% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.5 | 40% / 51% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 4.8 | 24% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 1.4 | 29% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 1.4 | 30% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 21% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 4.5 | 2 | 7% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 5.9 | 18% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | – | void |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | – | void |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 3% | – | void |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 4% | – | void |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | void |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 10.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 14.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 5.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 3.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 10.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 10.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 rush attempts (Light boxes, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 15.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 12.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 21.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology