TE · NYG · 149 lines since 2023
Isaiah Likely Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Isaiah Likely, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 28% — we make it 24%
- Line 17.5 yds longest rec — we project 17 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 42.5 rec yds — we project 37 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 46%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 18, under 22 (40 graded)
- Receptions over 17, under 23 (40 graded)
- Anytime TD over 11, under 40 (51 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 10 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 1–0 · model 35–33 · Freezing 1–2 · Starters out on defense 5–5 · Missed tackles 3–4 · Short week 1–2 · Pre-snap motion 2–0 · Wind 15+ mph 2–2 · Play action 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 28% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 49% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 37 | 44% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 32 | 37% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 27 | 30% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 22 | 21% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 22% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 29 | 37% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 47% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 45% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 17 | 42% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.4 | 41% / 48% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 42% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 47% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 22 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 18.5 | 17 | 46% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 28 | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 47% / 53% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 21 | 42% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 47% / 49% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 23 | 44% / 51% | 95 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 14.5 | 13 | 45% / 48% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 18 | 43% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 14.5 | 11 | 40% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 16 | 37% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 15.5 | 11 | 36% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 14 | 31% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 13.5 | 9.6 | 39% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 12 | 33% / 51% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 11.5 | 8.2 | 39% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 9.7 | 36% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 19% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.3 | 42% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 11 | 38% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 26% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 8.0 | 38% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 10 | 33% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 13.5 | 11 | 43% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 15 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 24 | 53% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 32 | 58% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 28 | 52% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 27 | 55% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 50% / 51% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 20 | 51% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 25 | 55% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 23 | 56% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 62% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 32 | 58% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 27 | 57% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 28 | 54% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 29 | 53% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 32 | 54% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 33 | 46% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 22 | 59% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 69% / 56% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 28 | 33% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 25 | 32% / 52% | 56 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 20 | 29% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 20% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 11 | 17% / 49% | 83 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 1 | 9% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 24 | 41% / 51% | 40 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 32.5 | – | – / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 56% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 41.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 22.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 38.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 38.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 26.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 26.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 23.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 23.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 22.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 22.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 16.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 22.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 22.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology