WR · NYJ · 53 lines since 2023
Isaiah Williams Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Isaiah Williams, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 20%
- Line 13.5 yds longest rec — we project 15 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 22.5 rec yds — we project 27 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 55%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
- Receptions over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 19 (22 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 4 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 1–0 · Missed tackles 1–0 · model 8–9 · Freezing 1–1 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 18% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 56% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 27 | 57% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 21 | 47% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 21 | 28% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 29% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 13 | 27% / 49% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 7.9 | 36% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 11 | 27% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 12.5 | 8.1 | 35% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 10 | 28% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 22% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.6 | 40% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.3 | 38% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.6 | 40% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.2 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.0 | 51% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 10 | 54% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | – | void |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | – | void |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | – | void |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 3% | – | void |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 4% | – | void |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 22.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 35.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 24.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 8.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology