TE · BUF · 37 lines since 2023
Jackson Hawes Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jackson Hawes, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 4%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 3, under 2 (5 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 18 (21 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 3 (6 graded)
Our calls on him: model 7–2 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Freezing 0–1 · Middle of the field 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Short week 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 8.5 | 5.2 | 40% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 5.8 | 37% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 1.5 | 2.6 | 53% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 2.7 | 53% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 56% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.0 | 43% / 52% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.8 | 42% / 49% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 5.5 | 5.5 | 50% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 6.1 | 52% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 63% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.3 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 7.5 | 0 | 28% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 0 | 28% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 13% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W17 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 11.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 9.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 9.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 5.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 5.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology