QB · ARI · 118 lines since 2023

Jacoby Brissett Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Jacoby Brissett, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 15% — we make it 14%
Line 36.5 pass attempts — we project 37 (P(over) 52%)
Line 24.5 completions — we project 24 (P(over) 47%)
Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 47%)
Line 268.5 pass yds — we project 262 (P(over) 48%)
Line 8.5 rush yds — we project 12 (P(over) 61%)

Over/under record by market

Passing yards over 12, under 8 (20 graded)
Passing TDs over 13, under 7 (20 graded)
Rushing yards over 10, under 10 (20 graded)
Anytime TD over 2, under 18 (20 graded)
Pass attempts over 7, under 4 (11 graded)
Completions over 7, under 4 (11 graded)
Rush attempts over 5, under 5 (10 graded)

Our calls on him: Pressure 2–1 · model 25–30 · High total (48.5+) 7–6 · Low total (40.5 or less) 5–0 · Big underdog (6.5+) 8–4 · Starters out on defense 4–2 · Dome team outdoors 1–2 · Short week 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Jacoby Brissett prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 15%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass att	36.5	37	52% / 52%	–	…
2026 W5	Cmp	24.5	24	47% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 56%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass yds	268.5	262	48% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	8.5	12	61% / 49%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 16%	0	under
2026 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 43%	2	over
2026 W4	Pass yds	229.5	235	53% / 50%	166	under
2026 W4	Rush yds	7.5	12	65% / 50%	18	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 13%	1	over
2026 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	41% / 38%	2	over
2026 W3	Pass yds	225.5	214	45% / 50%	280	over
2026 W3	Rush yds	7.5	11	61% / 50%	4	under
2026 W2	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 11%	0	under
2026 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 33%	1	under
2026 W2	Pass yds	216.5	204	44% / 50%	95	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	9.5	11	56% / 50%	7	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 11%	0	under
2026 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	39% / 37%	1	under
2026 W1	Pass yds	222.5	210	43% / 50%	277	over
2026 W1	Rush yds	11.5	11	50% / 50%	14	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	5% TD chance	5% / 9%	0	under
2025 W18	Pass att	38.5	37	42% / 49%	31	under
2025 W18	Cmp	23.5	24	51% / 48%	22	under
2025 W18	Pass TDs	1.5	1	33% / 40%	2	over
2025 W18	Pass yds	241.5	217	38% / 50%	243	over
2025 W18	Rush att	2.5	2	45% / 49%	3	over
2025 W18	Rush yds	8.5	5.7	40% / 49%	19	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 18%	0	under
2025 W17	Pass att	37.5	36	43% / 51%	37	under
2025 W17	Cmp	24.5	23	41% / 48%	21	under
2025 W17	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 52%	2	over
2025 W17	Pass yds	261.5	247	44% / 50%	212	under
2025 W17	Rush att	2.5	3	54% / 59%	0	under
2025 W17	Rush yds	11.5	8.8	42% / 50%	0	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 17%	0	under
2025 W16	Pass att	37.5	37	49% / 50%	31	under
2025 W16	Cmp	23.5	25	57% / 53%	16	under
2025 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 52%	1	under
2025 W16	Pass yds	257.5	260	51% / 51%	203	under
2025 W16	Rush att	2.5	3	63% / 58%	1	under
2025 W16	Rush yds	12.5	11	47% / 50%	5	under
2025 W15	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 11%	0	under
2025 W15	Pass att	37.5	36	43% / 52%	40	over
2025 W15	Cmp	22.5	24	57% / 51%	27	over
2025 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	1	27% / 32%	3	over
2025 W15	Pass yds	229.5	200	35% / 50%	249	over
2025 W15	Rush att	3.5	3	34% / 48%	3	under
2025 W15	Rush yds	12.5	7.7	35% / 50%	6	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 11%	0	under
2025 W14	Pass att	37.5	37	49% / 51%	44	over
2025 W14	Cmp	24.5	25	51% / 50%	25	over
2025 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	1	39% / 45%	2	over
2025 W14	Pass yds	254.5	239	43% / 49%	271	over
2025 W14	Rush att	2.5	3	54% / 58%	4	over
2025 W14	Rush yds	11.5	8.3	40% / 50%	22	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 13%	0	under
2025 W13	Pass att	37.5	37	48% / 51%	40	over
2025 W13	Cmp	24.5	24	50% / 52%	29	over
2025 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	1	34% / 48%	2	over
2025 W13	Pass yds	260.5	243	43% / 49%	301	over
2025 W13	Rush att	3.5	3	30% / 42%	3	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	12.5	8.2	36% / 50%	16	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 17%	0	under
2025 W12	Pass att	35.5	37	55% / 50%	49	over
2025 W12	Cmp	23.5	24	54% / 50%	33	over
2025 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 51%	1	under
2025 W12	Pass yds	249.5	254	52% / 50%	317	over
2025 W12	Rush att	3.5	3	32% / 41%	3	under
2025 W12	Rush yds	12.5	8.7	38% / 50%	20	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 16%	0	under
2025 W11	Pass att	34.5	35	52% / 49%	57	over
2025 W11	Cmp	21.5	22	53% / 52%	47	over
2025 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 51%	2	over
2025 W11	Pass yds	228.5	241	56% / 50%	452	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	17.5	11	33% / 50%	-2	under
2025 W10	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 13%	0	under
2025 W10	Pass att	35.5	35	47% / 51%	44	over
2025 W10	Cmp	21.5	23	58% / 54%	22	over
2025 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	1	34% / 40%	2	over
2025 W10	Pass yds	235.5	219	43% / 49%	258	over
2025 W10	Rush att	3.5	3	35% / 45%	4	over
2025 W10	Rush yds	13.5	7.2	31% / 50%	31	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 18%	1	over
2025 W9	Pass att	34.5	34	49% / 51%	31	under
2025 W9	Cmp	22.5	22	47% / 49%	21	under
2025 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	1	46% / 57%	2	over
2025 W9	Pass yds	240.5	257	57% / 50%	261	over
2025 W9	Rush att	3.5	3	30% / 51%	5	over
2025 W9	Rush yds	14.5	9.6	36% / 51%	4	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	5% TD chance	5% / 12%	0	under
2025 W7	Pass att	35.5	35	49% / 50%	36	over
2025 W7	Cmp	20.5	23	65% / 55%	25	over
2025 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	32% / 37%	2	over
2025 W7	Pass yds	216.5	221	52% / 51%	279	over
2025 W7	Rush att	3.5	1	8% / 43%	6	over
2025 W7	Rush yds	12.5	3.2	21% / 50%	26	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 15%	0	under
2024 W5	Pass TDs	0.5	1	61% / 59%	0	under
2024 W5	Pass yds	160.5	161	50% / 49%	160	under
2024 W5	Rush yds	9.5	7.9	44% / 48%	10	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 14%	0	under
2024 W4	Pass TDs	0.5	1	53% / 53%	1	over
2024 W4	Pass yds	164.5	162	49% / 50%	168	over
2024 W4	Rush yds	10.5	7.1	37% / 48%	3	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 13%	0	under
2024 W3	Pass TDs	0.5	1	57% / 57%	0	under
2024 W3	Pass yds	163.5	159	48% / 50%	98	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	12.5	10	42% / 49%	0	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 15%	0	under
2024 W2	Pass TDs	0.5	1	60% / 63%	1	over
2024 W2	Pass yds	182.5	188	52% / 49%	149	under
2024 W2	Rush yds	14.5	14	49% / 48%	6	under
2024 W1	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 12%	0	under
2024 W1	Pass TDs	0.5	1	59% / 65%	0	under
2024 W1	Pass yds	210.5	184	36% / 50%	121	under
2024 W1	Rush yds	12.5	10	43% / 48%	32	over

Our calls

2026 W4 Over 229.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 225.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 216.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 216.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Under 222.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Over 38.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 38.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 38.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 23.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 241.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 241.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 241.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 37.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 37.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 37.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 24.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 24.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 261.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 261.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 261.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 37.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 257.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 257.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 37.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 37.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 22.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 22.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 229.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 37.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 37.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 24.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 254.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 254.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 260.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 260.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 260.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 35.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology