RB · WAS · 98 lines since 2023
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jacory Croskey-Merritt, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 38% — we make it 44%
- Line 4.5 rec yds — we project 4.8 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 33%)
- Line 12.5 rush attempts — we project 14 (P(over) 60%)
- Line 55.5 rush + rec yds — we project 60 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 46.5 rush yds — we project 50 (P(over) 55%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 8, under 12 (20 graded)
- Receiving yards over 3, under 9 (12 graded)
- Receptions over 4, under 10 (14 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 14 (21 graded)
- Rush attempts over 7, under 8 (15 graded)
- Longest reception over 2, under 8 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: model 49–19 · Missed tackles 4–4 · Pre-snap motion 4–7 · Big underdog (6.5+) 3–2 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 38% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 4.8 | 51% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 35% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 12.5 | 14 | 60% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 55.5 | 60 | 55% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 46.5 | 50 | 55% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 3.2 | 41% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 59 | 48% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 33 | 42% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 41 | 37% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 24% / 51% | -7 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 11% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 40.5 | 52 | 65% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 0.5 | 0 | 37% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 0 | 37% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 38% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 14.5 | 12 | 32% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 61.5 | 47 | 34% / 50% | 105 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 41% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 6.5 | 12 | 85% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 42 | 77% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 2.5 | 0 | 34% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 0 | 34% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 42% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 13.5 | 12 | 35% / 53% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 46 | 40% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 5.5 | 10 | 88% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 41 | 83% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 6.5 | 10 | 81% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 36 | 71% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 57% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 7.5 | 11 | 77% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 44 | 72% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 9.5 | 11 | 63% / 43% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 46 | 67% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 5.5 | 3.4 | 42% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 3.7 | 39% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 12.5 | 10 | 32% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 45 | 49% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 5.5 | 3.9 | 42% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.4 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 12.5 | 11 | 37% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 44 | 42% / 51% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 8.5 | 7.1 | 45% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 8.9 | 44% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 61% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 14.5 | 10 | 16% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 55 | 36% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.8 | 47% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.2 | 43% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 14.5 | 9 | 14% / 48% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 69.5 | 57 | 37% / 51% | 61 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 6.5 | 4.7 | 42% / 47% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.3 | 46% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 7.5 | 7 | 48% / 48% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 35 | 57% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 4.5 | 1.2 | 38% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 1.3 | 39% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 54% / 67% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 7.5 | 7 | 45% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 31 | 55% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 5.5 | 0 | 28% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 0 | 27% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 14% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 12.5 | 8 | 18% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 43 | 41% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 2.5 | 0 | 40% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 0 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 48% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 8.5 | 6 | 23% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 30 | 38% / 52% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 40.5 | – | – / 50% | 82 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 60.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 37.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 37.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 37.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 51.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 61.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 61.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 61.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 6.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 24.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 24.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 53.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 53.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 53.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 18.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 6.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 24.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 24.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 29.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 9.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 9.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 33.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 45.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 12.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology