WR · ATL · 168 lines since 2023
Jahan Dotson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jahan Dotson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 17% — we make it 18%
- Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 18 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 20.5 rec yds — we project 27 (P(over) 58%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 62%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 17, under 33 (50 graded)
- Receptions over 14, under 29 (43 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 49 (55 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 26–34 · Short week 3–2 · Freezing 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 2–2 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Middle of the field 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 14.5 | 18 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 27 | 58% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 57% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 25 | 58% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 22 | 56% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 20 | 56% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 21 | 62% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.7 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.7 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 67% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 6.5 | 8.3 | 53% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 9.1 | 51% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 7.5 | 9.3 | 54% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 10 | 55% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 67% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 6.5 | 6.5 | 50% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.3 | 50% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 6.5 | 8.4 | 55% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 10 | 56% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 67% / 64% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 8.5 | 9.9 | 53% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 12 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 5.5 | 8.6 | 57% / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 10 | 57% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 68% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 4.5 | 12 | 69% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 14 | 61% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 52% / 51% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 22 | 48% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 9.5 | 11 | 53% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 13 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 7.5 | 12 | 63% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 16 | 61% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 11 | 59% / 48% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 14 | 60% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 6.5 | 12 | 64% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 16 | 61% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 6.5 | 12 | 66% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 16 | 66% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 81% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 9.5 | 14 | 61% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 19 | 63% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 6.5 | 15 | 70% / 51% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 20 | 70% / 51% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 8.9 | 57% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 14 | 64% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 75% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 12 | 52% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 17 | 55% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 8.8 | 49% / 52% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 9 | 49% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 11 | 54% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 13 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 18 | 66% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 25 | 42% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 15 | 40% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 15 | 29% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 21% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 25 | 62% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 28 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 23 | 46% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 33 | 49% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 31 | 46% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 25 | 38% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 36 | 49% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 40 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 39 | 40% / 49% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 30 | 44% / 50% | 108 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 46% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 23 | 36% / 52% | 43 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 28 | 38% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 41 | 48% / 49% | 30 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 35 | 45% / 48% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 47 | 52% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 70% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 44 | 48% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 73% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 49.5 | – | – / 51% | 40 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 49% | 5 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 17.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 7.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 7.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 6.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 6.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 6.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 8.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 23.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 9.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 5.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 9.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 26.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology