TE · DAL · 178 lines since 2023
Jake Ferguson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jake Ferguson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 33% — we make it 30%
- Line 11.5 yds longest rec — we project 15 (P(over) 63%)
- Line 25.5 rec yds — we project 26 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 38%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 20, under 32 (52 graded)
- Receptions over 26, under 25 (51 graded)
- Anytime TD over 13, under 39 (52 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 11 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Short week 3–1 · Starters out on defense 3–6 · Middle of the field 5–3 · model 44–41 · Dome team outdoors 13–7 · Pre-snap motion 7–6 · Missed tackles 1–6 · Wind 15+ mph 2–1 · Contested catches 1–1 · Explosive plays 1–0 · Red-zone defense 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 15 | 63% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 26 | 51% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 23 | 50% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 26 | 47% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 26 | 50% / 51% | 43 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 33 | 55% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 31 | 50% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 56% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 37 | 50% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 60% / 52% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 33 | 50% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 50% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 31 | 45% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 34% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 35 | 48% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 34 | 45% / 51% | 36 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 52% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 30 | 49% / 49% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 35 | 47% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 55% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 37 | 45% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 30% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 54% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 36 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 59% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 47 | 57% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 58% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 46 | 45% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 47% / 48% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 41 | 40% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 44% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 39 | 35% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 50% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 33 | 41% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 34% / 48% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 16.5 | 14 | 43% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 26 | 34% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 23% / 42% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 48% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 29 | 36% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 25 | 40% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 27 | 30% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 28 | 38% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 24 | 31% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 25% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 27 | 32% / 49% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 23% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | – | – / 29% | – | void |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 29 | 40% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 32 | 40% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 40 | 39% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 37 | 41% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 48 | 47% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 36% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 38 | 40% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 41 | 50% / 51% | 49 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 32 | 42% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 42% | – | void |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 31 | 39% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 44 | 54% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 43 | 45% / 51% | 33 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 37 | 42% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 38 | 47% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 42 | 46% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 39 | 52% / 49% | 77 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 38 | 52% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 31 | 44% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 37 | 50% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 30 | 43% / 49% | 91 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 29 | 54% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 36 | 49% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 31 | 52% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 47% / 51% | 77 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 44% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 29 | 58% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 35 | 63% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 27.5 | – | – / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 56% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 27.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 23.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 23.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 28.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 30.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 36.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 36.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 33.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 33.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 34.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 36.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 37.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 37.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 37.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 41.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 39.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 50.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 50.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 49.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 49.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology