WR · JAX · 169 lines since 2023
Jakobi Meyers Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jakobi Meyers, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 26% — we make it 30%
- Line 18.5 yds longest rec — we project 21 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 41.5 rec yds — we project 43 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 53%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 28, under 22 (50 graded)
- Receptions over 28, under 22 (50 graded)
- Anytime TD over 17, under 33 (50 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 8 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 4–10 · Missed tackles 3–3 · model 36–29 · Starters out on defense 2–4 · Dome team outdoors 3–9 · Middle of the field 2–11 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Short week 1–0 · Red-zone defense 1–2 · Explosive plays 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 26% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 43 | 51% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 48 | 57% / 51% | 33 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 42 | 57% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 41 | 54% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 64 | 74% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 75% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 58% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 52 | 45% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 22.5 | 24 | 55% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 54 | 45% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 20.5 | 20 | 49% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 43 | 38% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 28% / 40% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 56% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 47 | 44% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 20.5 | 20 | 48% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 42 | 40% / 49% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 57% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 43 | 54% / 50% | 90 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 56% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 57 | 52% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 41 | 46% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 54% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 48 | 49% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 59% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 55 | 47% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 53% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 58 | 38% / 52% | 32 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 22.5 | 25 | 57% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 62 | 47% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 57% / 49% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 59 | 47% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 58% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 62 | 44% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 20.5 | 26 | 68% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 77 | 69% / 50% | 97 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 7 | 75% / 55% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 53 | 36% / 50% | 123 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 57 | 47% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 59 | 41% / 51% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 57 | 46% / 49% | 59 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 57 | 43% / 51% | 67 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 48% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 47 | 42% / 51% | 97 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 50% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 45 | 43% / 50% | 121 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 55% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 46 | 35% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 47 | 42% / 51% | 105 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 38 | 43% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 52 | 60% / 49% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 6 | 78% / 61% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 52 | 58% / 51% | 49 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 63% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 31 | 47% / 49% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 41% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 27 | 36% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 39 | 49% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 47 | 51% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 65% / 59% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 43 | 52% / 49% | 56 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 36 | 46% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 47 | 55% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 70% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 41 | 50% / 49% | 25 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 34 | 47% / 51% | 79 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 34 | 45% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 39 | 51% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 48 | 47% / 47% | 38 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 53 | 42% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 51 | 51% / 49% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 53 | 45% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 66 | 62% / 51% | 75 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 64% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 65 | 63% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 6 | 82% / 61% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 68 | 61% / 49% | 85 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 7 | 76% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | – | – / 51% | 81 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 48% | 9 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 40.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 37.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 59.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 55.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 53.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 39.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 71.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 71.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 62.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 67.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 53.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 53.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 67.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 59.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 59.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 68.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 68.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 64.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology