RB · CLE · 122 lines since 2023
Jaleel McLaughlin Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jaleel McLaughlin, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 6% — we make it 5%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 17, under 14 (31 graded)
- Receiving yards over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
- Receptions over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
- Anytime TD over 11, under 40 (51 graded)
- Rush attempts over 2, under 4 (6 graded)
Our calls on him: Big favourite (6.5+) 1–3 · model 25–18 · Missed tackles 6–10 · Short week 0–3 · Starters out on defense 4–0 · Light boxes 1–1 · Man coverage 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 4% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 39% / 53% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 27 | 48% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 23 | 45% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 47% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 66% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 17 | 68% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 3.5 | 5 | 74% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 18 | 62% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 56% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 23 | 47% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 35% / 45% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 21 | 35% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 5.1 | 52% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 35% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 31 | 39% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 5 | 40% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 22 | 35% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 3.4 | 45% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 37% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 29 | 40% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 23 | 59% / 51% | 84 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 20 | 58% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.1 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 15 | 55% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 47% / 49% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 16 | 58% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 5.5 | 54% / 52% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 73% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 25 | 63% / 52% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 6.2 | 49% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 18 | 47% / 47% | 35 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.5 | 46% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 17 | 42% / 52% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.5 | 36% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 22 | 35% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 3.8 | 30% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 13 | 37% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.4 | 33% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 15 | 33% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 7.5 | 25% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 19 | 26% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 8.4 | 30% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 20 | 39% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 16 | 48% / 54% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 15 | 52% / 49% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 14 | 57% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 6.2 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 17 | 61% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.9 | 48% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 40% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 20 | 54% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.6 | 46% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 19 | 54% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 5.6 | 50% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 36% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 19 | 47% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 26 | 38% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 26 | 40% / 51% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 21 | 47% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W18 Over 6.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 5.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 25.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 25.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 13.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 5.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 24.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 6.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 29.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 37.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 37.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 37.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 30.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 35.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 18.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 18.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 13.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 18.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 6.5 rec yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 19.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 19.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 30.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 31.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology