WR · LV · 137 lines since 2023
Jalen Nailor Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jalen Nailor, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 18%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 16, under 22 (38 graded)
- Receptions over 13, under 23 (36 graded)
- Anytime TD over 9, under 34 (43 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 7 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: model 18–26 · Pre-snap motion 4–3 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Short week 3–0 · Dome team outdoors 8–4 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Play action 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 18% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 20 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 28 | 54% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 26 | 40% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 35 | 47% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 11.5 | 16 | 60% / 52% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 21 | 58% / 51% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 55% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 46% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 20 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 55% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 19 | 56% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 54% / 52% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 17 | 52% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 52% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 17 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 19 | 52% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 54% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 27 | 52% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 62% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 56% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 22 | 52% / 50% | 124 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 51% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 11.5 | 14 | 58% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 20 | 55% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 11.5 | 14 | 58% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 21 | 58% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 12 | 53% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 16 | 54% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 11.5 | 16 | 63% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 23 | 62% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 44% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 23 | 39% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 15.5 | 11 | 39% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 14 | 31% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 20% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 13.5 | 11 | 41% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 14 | 40% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 17 | 51% / 51% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 11 | 58% / 53% | 81 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 71% / 62% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 9.7 | 52% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 16 | 55% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 16 | 49% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 14 | 52% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 14 | 53% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 17 | 52% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 24 | 54% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 46% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 17 | 49% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 20 | 61% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 22 | 57% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 16% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 21 | 29% / 51% | 31 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 7.3 | 16% / 49% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 13% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 3.3 | 26% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 22% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W2 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 20.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 22.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 22.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 15.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 15.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 17.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 17.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 24.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 16.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 13.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 19.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 8.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 12.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 12.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 15.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 15.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 20.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 25.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology