WR · MIA · 125 lines since 2023
Jalen Tolbert Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jalen Tolbert, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 5% — we make it 5%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 16, under 18 (34 graded)
- Receptions over 16, under 14 (30 graded)
- Anytime TD over 10, under 38 (48 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 3 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: model 26–29 · Dome team outdoors 8–6 · Pre-snap motion 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 2–1 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Middle of the field 1–1 · Short week 1–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | – | void |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 12% | – | void |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 28 | 77% / 51% | – | void |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 73% / 39% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 17 | 61% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 8.5 | 13 | 63% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 17 | 66% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 35% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 7.5 | 18 | 77% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 28 | 79% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 0.5 | 2 | 89% / 64% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 59% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 34 | 54% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 39 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 51% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 46% / 51% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 10.5 | 14 | 60% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 20 | 65% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 10.5 | 14 | 60% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 19 | 60% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 10.5 | 18 | 72% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 32 | 78% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 77% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 21 | 53% / 51% | 98 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 24 | 55% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 25 | 60% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 28 | 54% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 27 | 55% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 26 | 52% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 29 | 58% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 26 | 47% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 36 | 43% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 34 | 45% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 40 | 43% / 51% | 43 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 27 | 39% / 49% | 87 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 31% / 41% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 26 | 46% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 25 | 46% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 11 | 32% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 16% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 8.7 | 29% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 14 | 45% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 10 | 45% / 49% | 51 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 11 | 47% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 17 | 49% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 18 | 45% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 18 | 51% / 51% | 49 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 11 | 39% / 48% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 10 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 4.6 | 27% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2026 W1 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 8.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 8.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 29.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 29.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 36.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 36.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 11.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 11.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 12.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 19.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 23.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 25.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 37.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 34.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology