QB · TB · 11 lines since 2023
Jalon Daniels Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jalon Daniels, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 27% — we make it 6%
- Line 28.5 pass attempts — we project 31 (P(over) 64%)
- Line 17.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 69%)
- Line 0.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 63%)
- Line 182.5 pass yds — we project 195 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 7.5 rush attempts — we project 3 (P(over) 2%)
- Line 43.5 rush yds — we project 12 (P(over) 6%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Passing TDs over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
- Rushing yards over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: Big underdog (6.5+) 0–0 · Short week 0–0 · Low total (40.5 or less) 1–0 · model 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 27% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 28.5 | 31 | 64% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 17.5 | 20 | 69% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 67% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 182.5 | 195 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 7.5 | 3 | 2% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 12 | 6% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 0% TD chance | 0% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 60% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 170.5 | 184 | 57% / 50% | 148 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 0 | 0% / 50% | 55 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 28.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Over 17.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 181.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 170.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 170.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology