QB · NYG · 56 lines since 2023
Jameis Winston Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jameis Winston, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 9% — we make it 6%
- Line 30.5 pass attempts — we project 29 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 18.5 completions — we project 19 (P(over) 53%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 30%)
- Line 200.5 pass yds — we project 180 (P(over) 40%)
- Line 2.5 rush yds — we project 6.4 (P(over) 67%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 6, under 5 (11 graded)
- Passing TDs over 6, under 5 (11 graded)
- Rushing yards over 5, under 6 (11 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 9 (12 graded)
- Pass attempts over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
- Completions over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: model 9–12 · Low total (40.5 or less) 1–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–3 · High total (48.5+) 2–0 · Man coverage 2–0 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0 · Pressure 1–0 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Short week 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 30.5 | 29 | 43% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 18.5 | 19 | 53% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 35% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 200.5 | 180 | 40% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 6.4 | 67% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 36% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 207.5 | 191 | 42% / 50% | 250 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 9.2 | 64% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 69% / 67% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 199.5 | 188 | 44% / 50% | 118 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 11 | 67% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 33.5 | 32 | 45% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 53% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 25% / 37% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 204 | 40% / 50% | 366 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 7.6 | 43% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | – | – / 9% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 34.5 | – | – / 53% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 21.5 | – | – / 48% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 218.5 | – | – / 50% | 201 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 10.5 | – | – / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 223 | 45% / 50% | 146 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 5.3 | 30% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Pass yds | 248.5 | 230 | 42% / 50% | 212 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 3.3 | 27% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 36% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 213 | 39% / 50% | 497 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 66% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 215.5 | 201 | 43% / 50% | 219 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 1.7 | 23% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 243 | 51% / 50% | 395 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 3.6 | 25% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 245.5 | 225 | 40% / 50% | 235 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 0 | 13% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 36% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 237.5 | – | – / 51% | 334 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 10.5 | – | – / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 11% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 207.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 199.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 199.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 33.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 33.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 20.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 225.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 34.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 21.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 218.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 218.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 232.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 232.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 248.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 248.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 236.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 236.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 215.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 215.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 215.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 241.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 245.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 237.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology