WR · DET · 180 lines since 2023
Jameson Williams Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jameson Williams, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 36% — we make it 29%
- Line 22.5 yds longest rec — we project 30 (P(over) 67%)
- Line 52.5 rec yds — we project 64 (P(over) 60%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 59%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 5, under 12 (17 graded)
- Receiving yards over 27, under 20 (47 graded)
- Receptions over 28, under 19 (47 graded)
- Anytime TD over 17, under 31 (48 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 8 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 6–7 · model 41–34 · Middle of the field 4–2 · Short week 3–2 · Explosive plays 6–4 · Pre-snap motion 5–5 · Starters out on defense 2–1 · Missed tackles 6–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1 · Play action 2–0 · Freezing 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 36% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 22.5 | 30 | 67% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 64 | 60% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 55% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 56 | 55% / 50% | 102 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 56 | 53% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 57 | 50% / 51% | 33 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 90 | 72% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 6 | 79% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 23.5 | 30 | 66% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 75 | 60% / 51% | 74 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 26.5 | 31 | 60% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 74 | 56% / 51% | 37 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 31% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 26.5 | 35 | 67% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 83 | 60% / 51% | 70 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 31% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 25.5 | 29 | 58% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 64 | 50% / 51% | 134 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 59% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 25.5 | 33 | 68% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 77 | 60% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 29% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 22.5 | 28 | 62% / 53% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 56 | 53% / 51% | 144 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 25.5 | 32 | 65% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 69 | 55% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 29% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 23.5 | 26 | 56% / 51% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 56 | 50% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 22.5 | 27 | 60% / 49% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 50 | 54% / 51% | 119 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 22.5 | 25 | 56% / 52% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 45 | 47% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 23.5 | 28 | 60% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 59 | 55% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 30% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 22.5 | 25 | 58% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 50 | 54% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 33% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 22.5 | 31 | 67% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 62 | 57% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 33% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 21.5 | 25 | 58% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 45 | 53% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 22.5 | 26 | 58% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 55 | 54% / 51% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 28% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 54% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 47 | 50% / 50% | 108 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 22.5 | 28 | 65% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 67 | 61% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 71% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 67 | 54% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 40% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 52 | 50% / 51% | 77 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 37% / 51% | -2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 50 | 51% / 49% | 143 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 54 | 50% / 51% | 37 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 50 | 51% / 52% | 80 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 41% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 59 | 57% / 52% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 38% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 52 | 56% / 51% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 52 | 55% / 51% | 124 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 28% / 47% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 38 | 49% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 28% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 52 | 53% / 50% | -4 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 47 | 52% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 31% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 42 | 48% / 50% | 80 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 36% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 51 | 50% / 52% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 33% / 42% | -7 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 39 | 42% / 51% | 79 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 29% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 32 | 43% / 50% | 121 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 22 | 37% / 51% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 26 | 45% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 21 | 50% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 39% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 18 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 21 | 44% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 20 | 45% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 17 | 47% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 19 | 53% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 45% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 15 | 47% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 15.5 | – | – / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 49% | 2 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 50.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 52.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 56.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 56.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 56.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 61.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 61.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 61.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 61.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 26.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 64.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 64.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 64.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 26.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 68.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 68.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 68.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 64.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 63.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 51.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 51.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 55.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 55.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 45.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 45.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 47.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology