WR · SEA · 187 lines since 2023

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 54% — we make it 43%
Line 27.5 yds longest rec — we project 32 (P(over) 62%)
Line 95.5 rec yds — we project 99 (P(over) 52%)
Line 6.5 receptions — we project 7 (P(over) 58%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Receiving yards over 35, under 20 (55 graded)
Receptions over 34, under 21 (55 graded)
Anytime TD over 20, under 35 (55 graded)
Longest reception over 11, under 6 (17 graded)

Our calls on him: Explosive plays 2–0 · Middle of the field 3–6 · Pre-snap motion 7–7 · model 39–29 · Missed tackles 7–5 · Short week 2–3 · Wind 15+ mph 0–2 · Starters out on defense 5–3 · Screens 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Jaxon Smith-Njigba prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 54%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	27.5	32	62% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	95.5	99	52% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	6.5	7	58% / 55%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 57%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	93.5	98	53% / 50%	76	under
2026 W4	Rec	6.5	7	60% / 56%	5	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 52%	1	over
2026 W3	Rec yds	91.5	91	49% / 50%	128	over
2026 W3	Rec	6.5	7	52% / 52%	10	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 43%	1	over
2026 W2	Rec yds	81.5	85	53% / 50%	155	over
2026 W2	Rec	6.5	7	56% / 48%	9	over
2026 W1	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 42%	1	over
2026 W1	Rec yds	82.5	106	65% / 50%	122	over
2026 W1	Rec	6.5	8	68% / 49%	8	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 53%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	28.5	33	60% / 50%	19	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	98.5	99	51% / 50%	84	under
2025 W18	Rec	7.5	7	47% / 46%	6	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 49%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	27.5	32	62% / 49%	18	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	90.5	91	50% / 50%	72	under
2025 W17	Rec	6.5	7	51% / 49%	9	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 45%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	27.5	30	57% / 49%	27	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	89.5	86	47% / 50%	96	over
2025 W16	Rec	6.5	6	50% / 51%	8	over
2025 W16	Rush yds	0.5	0	26% / 35%	0	under
2025 W15	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 54%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	28.5	34	62% / 49%	39	over
2025 W15	Rec yds	96.5	96	50% / 50%	113	over
2025 W15	Rec	6.5	6	48% / 52%	7	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 52%	1	over
2025 W14	Long rec	28.5	32	59% / 49%	30	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	95.5	89	46% / 50%	92	under
2025 W14	Rec	6.5	6	46% / 50%	7	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 53%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	29.5	32	58% / 49%	17	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	97.5	92	47% / 50%	23	under
2025 W13	Rec	6.5	6	46% / 54%	2	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 50%	1	over
2025 W12	Long rec	28.5	32	61% / 49%	63	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	95.5	90	46% / 50%	167	over
2025 W12	Rec	6.5	6	46% / 55%	8	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 45%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	27.5	31	58% / 51%	28	over
2025 W11	Rec yds	96.5	88	45% / 50%	105	over
2025 W11	Rec	7.5	6	39% / 45%	9	over
2025 W10	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 51%	1	over
2025 W10	Long rec	28.5	33	61% / 50%	43	over
2025 W10	Rec yds	98.5	103	52% / 52%	93	under
2025 W10	Rec	6.5	7	55% / 56%	5	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 53%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	28.5	34	65% / 49%	26	under
2025 W9	Rec yds	98.5	110	57% / 50%	129	over
2025 W9	Rec	7.5	8	54% / 46%	8	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 42%	1	over
2025 W7	Long rec	27.5	29	54% / 51%	26	under
2025 W7	Rec yds	86.5	82	48% / 51%	123	over
2025 W7	Rec	6.5	6.5	50% / 49%	8	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 43%	1	over
2025 W6	Long rec	25.5	29	60% / 50%	61	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	85.5	85	50% / 50%	162	over
2025 W6	Rec	6.5	7	52% / 49%	8	over
2025 W5	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 44%	1	over
2025 W5	Long rec	25.5	27	54% / 50%	53	over
2025 W5	Rec yds	80.5	78	48% / 50%	132	over
2025 W5	Rec	6.5	6	47% / 50%	8	over
2025 W4	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 39%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	25.5	27	56% / 50%	36	over
2025 W4	Rec yds	85.5	83	47% / 49%	79	under
2025 W4	Rec	6.5	7	55% / 56%	4	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 43%	1	over
2025 W3	Long rec	24.5	27	57% / 49%	45	over
2025 W3	Rec yds	71.5	78	55% / 51%	96	over
2025 W3	Rec	6.5	6	48% / 45%	5	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 37%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	23.5	23	49% / 50%	43	over
2025 W2	Rec yds	70.5	67	47% / 50%	103	over
2025 W2	Rec	6.5	7	52% / 46%	8	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 40%	0	under
2025 W1	Long rec	22.5	27	65% / 49%	40	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	60.5	94	74% / 50%	124	over
2025 W1	Rec	5.5	9	82% / 44%	9	over
2024 W18	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 39%	0	under
2024 W18	Rec yds	62.5	63	50% / 50%	9	under
2024 W18	Rec	5.5	5	49% / 57%	4	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 39%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	73.5	64	42% / 50%	32	under
2024 W17	Rec	6.5	6	39% / 43%	3	under
2024 W16	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 34%	1	over
2024 W16	Rec yds	64.5	58	43% / 50%	95	over
2024 W16	Rec	6.5	5	37% / 43%	8	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 36%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	65.5	61	47% / 50%	83	over
2024 W15	Rec	5.5	5	46% / 54%	10	over
2024 W14	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 35%	1	over
2024 W14	Rec yds	64.5	55	42% / 51%	82	over
2024 W14	Rec	5.5	5	43% / 52%	5	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 31%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	55.5	50	46% / 50%	74	over
2024 W13	Rec	5.5	5	41% / 44%	4	under
2024 W12	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 38%	1	over
2024 W12	Rec yds	58.5	59	50% / 51%	77	over
2024 W12	Rec	5.5	5	46% / 52%	6	over
2024 W11	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 33%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	51.5	60	57% / 50%	110	over
2024 W11	Rec	4.5	5	61% / 54%	10	over
2024 W9	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 40%	1	over
2024 W9	Rec yds	59.5	63	55% / 50%	180	over
2024 W9	Rec	5.5	6	57% / 48%	7	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 35%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec yds	52.5	55	53% / 50%	69	over
2024 W8	Rec	5.5	6	51% / 46%	6	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 34%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	52.5	46	43% / 49%	9	under
2024 W7	Rec	5.5	4	32% / 44%	3	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 33%	0	under
2024 W6	Rec yds	47.5	41	42% / 50%	53	over
2024 W6	Rec	4.5	4	44% / 54%	5	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 34%	1	over
2024 W5	Rec yds	46.5	47	51% / 50%	31	under
2024 W5	Rec	4.5	4	48% / 56%	4	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 31%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec yds	50.5	42	40% / 51%	51	over
2024 W4	Rec	4.5	4	45% / 56%	8	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 34%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	51.5	45	42% / 51%	39	under
2024 W3	Rec	4.5	4	47% / 55%	3	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 29%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	43.5	29	33% / 50%	117	over
2024 W2	Rec	4.5	3	25% / 43%	12	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 33%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	45.5	42	47% / 52%	19	under
2024 W1	Rec	4.5	4	37% / 43%	2	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 36%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	46.5	35	37% / 48%	14	under
2023 W18	Rec	4.5	3	28% / 44%	3	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 31%	1	over
2023 W17	Rec yds	41.5	42	51% / 50%	12	under
2023 W17	Rec	3.5	4	57% / 57%	1	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 30%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	42.5	37	43% / 50%	61	over
2023 W16	Rec	4.5	3	33% / 41%	6	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 27%	1	over
2023 W15	Rec yds	44.5	39	44% / 50%	48	over
2023 W15	Rec	3.5	4	53% / 57%	4	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 21%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	38.5	34	43% / 50%	25	under
2023 W14	Rec	3.5	4	56% / 55%	4	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 25%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	42.5	32	35% / 50%	62	over
2023 W13	Rec	4.5	3	27% / 43%	7	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 24%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	37.5	34	44% / 50%	41	over
2023 W12	Rec	3.5	3	50% / 54%	2	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 29%	0	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	39.5	37	47% / 49%	40	over
2023 W11	Rec	3.5	4	51% / 49%	3	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 30%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	39.5	41	52% / 50%	53	over
2023 W10	Rec	3.5	4	51% / 52%	4	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 19%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	30.5	30	49% / 50%	63	over
2023 W9	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 42%	6	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 25%	1	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	33.5	40	58% / 49%	36	over
2023 W8	Rec	3.5	4	54% / 47%	3	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 37%	1	over
2023 W7	Rec yds	46.5	34	37% / 50%	63	over
2023 W7	Rec	4.5	3	26% / 43%	4	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 23%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	27.5	28	51% / 50%	48	over
2023 W6	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 61%	4	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 23%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	28.5	29	51% / 50%	5	under
2023 W4	Rec	2.5	3	54% / 57%	3	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 29%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	35.5	39	54% / 50%	10	under
2023 W3	Rec	3.5	4	55% / 50%	1	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 29%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec yds	37.5	33	43% / 49%	34	under
2023 W2	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 46%	5	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 29%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	27.5	–	– / 50%	13	under
2023 W1	Rec	2.5	–	– / 48%	3	over

Our calls

2026 W5 Under 93.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Under 93.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W5 Under 93.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
2026 W4 Under 93.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 91.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 91.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 82.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Over 28.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 98.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 98.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 27.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 90.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 27.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 89.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 89.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 89.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 89.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 28.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 96.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 28.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 95.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 29.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 97.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 97.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 28.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 95.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 27.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 96.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 96.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 96.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Over 28.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 98.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 98.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 28.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 98.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 98.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 7.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 86.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 86.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Under 85.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Over 80.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 80.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 85.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 85.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 85.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Over 6.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Over 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W18 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology