QB · WAS · 131 lines since 2023
Jayden Daniels Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jayden Daniels, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 31% — we make it 11%
- Line 29.5 pass attempts — we project 31 (P(over) 60%)
- Line 18.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 64%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 193.5 pass yds — we project 214 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 6.5 rush attempts — we project 4 (P(over) 18%)
- Line 30.5 rush yds — we project 20 (P(over) 32%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 12, under 14 (26 graded)
- Passing TDs over 11, under 15 (26 graded)
- Rushing yards over 11, under 14 (25 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 19 (26 graded)
- Pass attempts over 1, under 6 (7 graded)
- Completions over 1, under 6 (7 graded)
- Rush attempts over 3, under 4 (7 graded)
Our calls on him: High total (48.5+) 3–8 · model 29–25 · Man coverage 2–1 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Short week 2–0 · Freezing 0–1 · Play action 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 31% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 29.5 | 31 | 60% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 18.5 | 20 | 64% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 42% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 193.5 | 214 | 61% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 6.5 | 4 | 18% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 20 | 32% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 228 | 52% / 50% | 96 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 24 | 28% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | – | – / 66% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 202.5 | – | – / 50% | 164 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 36.5 | – | – / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 29.5 | 31 | 58% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 53% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 213 | 49% / 50% | 78 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 7.5 | 8 | 50% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 36 | 49% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 54% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 56% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 234 | 53% / 50% | 153 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 7.5 | 7 | 37% / 55% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 42.5 | 32 | 33% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 30.5 | 33 | 62% / 52% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 54% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 258 | 61% / 50% | 156 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 8.5 | 7 | 35% / 54% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 40 | 41% / 51% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 61% / 49% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 57% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 245 | 60% / 50% | 211 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 8.5 | 7 | 35% / 49% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 46.5 | 42 | 44% / 51% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 30.5 | 33 | 62% / 53% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 55% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 207.5 | 223 | 56% / 50% | 231 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 8.5 | 7 | 27% / 46% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 33 | 35% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 31.5 | 33 | 61% / 52% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 54% / 48% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 232 | 51% / 50% | 200 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 8.5 | 7 | 29% / 54% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 36 | 36% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 30.5 | 33 | 63% / 46% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 59% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 244 | 59% / 49% | 233 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 8.5 | 7 | 34% / 53% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 42 | 46% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 239 | 60% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 50 | 54% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 251 | 62% / 50% | 227 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 40 | 38% / 51% | 127 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 37% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 212.5 | 212 | 50% / 50% | 258 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 33 | 39% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 217.5 | 241 | 60% / 53% | 226 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 41.5 | 39 | 47% / 49% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 42% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 219.5 | 224 | 52% / 52% | 206 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 41.5 | 40 | 48% / 51% | 34 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 224 | 51% / 50% | 275 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 43 | 57% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 215 | 45% / 50% | 191 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 32 | 34% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 213 | 44% / 50% | 202 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 38 | 40% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 208 | 41% / 50% | 209 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 45 | 45% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 206.5 | 210 | 52% / 50% | 326 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 274 | 65% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 47 | 48% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 237 | 56% / 51% | 269 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 35 | 33% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 200.5 | 220 | 59% / 50% | 238 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 36 | 27% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 213.5 | 206 | 46% / 51% | 233 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 35 | 29% / 50% | 47 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 64% / 68% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 195.5 | 187 | 46% / 50% | 254 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 30 | 21% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 194.5 | 218 | 60% / 50% | 226 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 35 | 27% / 46% | 44 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 208.5 | – | – / 50% | 184 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 39.5 | – | – / 50% | 88 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W2 Over 222.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 36.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 202.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 214.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 42.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 30.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 229.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 229.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 229.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 47.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 29.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 218.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 218.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 46.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 207.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 43.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 31.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 228.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 228.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 228.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 45.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 222.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 216.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 221.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 48.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 212.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 212.5 pass yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 39.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 217.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 224.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 224.5 pass yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 224.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 43.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 45.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 224.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 49.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 206.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology