WR · HOU · 65 lines since 2023
Jaylin Noel Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jaylin Noel, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 16% — we make it 7%
- Line 13.5 yds longest rec — we project 10 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 20.5 rec yds — we project 13 (P(over) 37%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 43%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 7, under 8 (15 graded)
- Receptions over 5, under 8 (13 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 19 (21 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 6 (12 graded)
Our calls on him: model 15–14 · Freezing 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 0–2 · Short week 1–0 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Pre-snap motion 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 16% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 10 | 42% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 37% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 57% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 15 | 56% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 38% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 18 | 35% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 12 | 26% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 21% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 9.1 | 36% / 51% | 53 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 12.5 | 8.2 | 39% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 10 | 35% / 52% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 0.5 | 5.0 | 64% / 49% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 5.6 | 64% / 49% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 6.5 | 8.5 | 56% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 9.8 | 55% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 4.5 | 7.3 | 60% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 8.6 | 61% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 7.5 | 9.9 | 58% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 12 | 62% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.8 | 54% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 11 | 54% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 76% / 67% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 11.5 | 10 | 46% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 20 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 17.5 | 16 | 46% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 27 | 37% / 51% | 63 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 9.5 | 5.3 | 37% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 5.7 | 36% / 52% | 77 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.1 | 44% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.6 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 10.5 | – | – / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 17.5 | – | – / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 53% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 9.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 12.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology