RB · ARI · 23 lines since 2023
Jeremiyah Love Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jeremiyah Love, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 54% — we make it 40%
- Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 8.2 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 10.5 rec yds — we project 12 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 38%)
- Line 11.5 rush attempts — we project 11 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 61.5 rush + rec yds — we project 65 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 45.5 rush yds — we project 50 (P(over) 55%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Receiving yards over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 5–4 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Pre-snap motion 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 54% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.2 | 49% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 12 | 55% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 11.5 | 11 | 50% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 61.5 | 65 | 54% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 50 | 55% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 14 | 39% / 50% | -8 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 24% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 47 | 30% / 50% | 63 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 10 | 37% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 20 | 18% / 49% | 90 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 6.1 | 21% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 17% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 14 | 13% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 15.5 | – | – / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 32.5 | – | – / 50% | 41 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 65.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 39.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 39.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 39.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 36.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology