TE · NYJ · 118 lines since 2023
Jeremy Ruckert Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jeremy Ruckert, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 8% — we make it 12%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 15, under 14 (29 graded)
- Receptions over 10, under 14 (24 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 51 (53 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 6 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: model 27–21 · Freezing 1–1 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Short week 0–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 8% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 12 | 45% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 10 | 54% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 33% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 9.5 | 6.7 | 36% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 8.8 | 32% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.4 | 36% / 52% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 9.6 | 32% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 11.5 | 8.0 | 34% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 12 | 30% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 5.5 | 3.9 | 44% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.5 | 46% / 52% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 63% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 0.5 | 3.0 | 60% / 48% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 3.2 | 60% / 48% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 4.5 | 4.3 | 49% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.7 | 47% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 68% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 4.5 | 3 | 44% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 3.1 | 45% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 6.5 | 7.4 | 53% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 9.1 | 57% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 75% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 5.5 | 5.5 | 50% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 6.3 | 52% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 69% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 6.5 | 4.8 | 44% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.7 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 4.3 | 44% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 64% / 66% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 5.0 | 52% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 4.1 | 20% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 9% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 5.1 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 4.2 | 44% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.9 | 41% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 4.3 | 44% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 33% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 3.0 | 49% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0.5 | 38% / 49% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 51% / 62% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 3.0 | 51% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 2.2 | 43% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 1.9 | 44% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 54% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 4.4 | 49% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | – | void |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 7.0 | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 5.8 | 36% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 4.7 | 31% / 49% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 4.3 | 32% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 15.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 5.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 4.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 5.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 6.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 4.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 3.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 4.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W14 Over 11.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology