WR · CLE · 183 lines since 2023
Jerry Jeudy Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jerry Jeudy, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 12% — we make it 12%
- Line 10.5 yds longest rec — we project 13 (P(over) 59%)
- Line 12.5 rec yds — we project 20 (P(over) 63%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 61%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 26, under 28 (54 graded)
- Receptions over 24, under 30 (54 graded)
- Anytime TD over 8, under 46 (54 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 11 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: model 34–33 · Short week 1–2 · Missed tackles 2–2 · Pre-snap motion 4–6 · Middle of the field 2–2 · Freezing 2–3 · Wind 15+ mph 5–3 · Starters out on defense 5–5 · Explosive plays 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 12% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 10.5 | 13 | 59% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 20 | 63% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 42% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 18 | 56% / 51% | 36 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 25 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 70% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 24 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 47 | 72% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 5 | 81% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 20.5 | 19 | 46% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 38 | 41% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 55% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 34 | 57% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 51% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 30 | 51% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 18.5 | 19 | 52% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 39 | 53% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 70% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 57% / 48% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 34 | 54% / 51% | 76 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 58% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 33 | 59% / 51% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 33 | 48% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 16.5 | 19 | 56% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 35 | 46% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 17.5 | 22 | 65% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 47 | 59% / 51% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 55% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 42 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 17.5 | 22 | 65% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 47 | 61% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 40 | 46% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 53% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 42 | 48% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 56% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 47 | 48% / 51% | 48 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 54% / 53% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 47 | 46% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 21.5 | 21 | 50% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 51 | 44% / 49% | 51 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 22.5 | 29 | 72% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 95 | 72% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 8 | 83% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 62 | 54% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 7 | 69% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 59 | 64% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 76% / 56% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 57.5 | 72 | 61% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 56% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 60 | 41% / 50% | 108 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 46% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 69.5 | 64 | 46% / 50% | 64 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 58% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 64 | 53% / 52% | 235 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 63% / 53% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 45 | 49% / 51% | 85 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 51 | 53% / 51% | 142 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 47 | 49% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 49 | 52% / 51% | 79 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 55 | 59% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 68% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 36 | 43% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 51 | 56% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 43 | 51% / 51% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 47 | 57% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 38 | 46% / 48% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 32 | 43% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 42 | 56% / 49% | 79 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 60 | 65% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 67% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 43 | 56% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 42 | 46% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 43 | 48% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 45 | 48% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 40 | 50% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 52 | 60% / 51% | 58 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 65% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 53 | 52% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 48 | 51% / 48% | 50 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 48 | 52% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 65% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 53 | 51% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 62% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 50 | 51% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 51 | 45% / 49% | 52 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 40 | 40% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 47.5 | – | – / 49% | 25 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 56% | 3 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 14.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 46.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 46.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 29.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 29.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 29.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 36.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 26.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 39.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 39.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 36.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 49.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 58.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 58.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 58.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 58.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 43.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 43.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology