RB · DEN · 128 lines since 2023
J.K. Dobbins Player Props
Closing consensus lines for J.K. Dobbins, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 41% — we make it 30%
- Line 13.5 rush attempts — we project 11 (P(over) 33%)
- Line 52.5 rush yds — we project 44 (P(over) 40%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 14, under 14 (28 graded)
- Receiving yards over 8, under 17 (25 graded)
- Receptions over 11, under 13 (24 graded)
- Anytime TD over 12, under 16 (28 graded)
- Rush attempts over 6, under 4 (10 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 6 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 12–7 · model 43–21 · Pre-snap motion 3–2 · Big favourite (6.5+) 3–2 · Light boxes 2–0 · Short week 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 1–4 · Starters out on defense 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 13.5 | 11 | 33% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 44 | 40% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 37 | 23% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 53 | 51% / 50% | 49 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 47 | 37% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 6.3 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 75% / 65% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 72 | 72% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 2.5 | 4.3 | 58% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 4.9 | 59% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 69% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 52% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 70.5 | 82 | 60% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 3.5 | 3.3 | 49% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 3.8 | 51% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 14.5 | 13 | 42% / 53% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 60 | 47% / 50% | 61 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 1.5 | 4.0 | 61% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 4.5 | 61% / 49% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 67% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 15.5 | 14 | 41% / 48% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 75 | 56% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 6.5 | 4.2 | 38% / 49% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 4.8 | 44% / 51% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 15.5 | 13 | 34% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 58 | 42% / 51% | 81 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 5.1 | 52% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 48% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 69.5 | 79 | 58% / 51% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 4.5 | 5.5 | 55% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 6.8 | 59% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 45% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 57 | 57% / 49% | 79 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.3 | 49% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10 | 52% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 14.5 | 14 | 47% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 71 | 56% / 50% | 101 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.1 | 48% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 9.9 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 12.5 | 13 | 53% / 52% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 54 | 55% / 50% | 83 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.1 | 48% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.8 | 48% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 12.5 | 12 | 48% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 52 | 55% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 66% TD chance | 66% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 7.5 | 12 | 72% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 23 | 79% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 84% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 10.5 | 18 | 87% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 82 | 86% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 12 | 43% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 69.5 | 63 | 43% / 51% | 63 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 59% TD chance | 59% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 10 | 46% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 59 | 52% / 51% | 76 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 46% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 46.5 | 55 | 60% / 49% | 40 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 41% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 57 | 56% / 49% | 56 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 12 | 43% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 73 | 61% / 49% | 50 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 43% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 69 | 54% / 49% | 85 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 45% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 76.5 | 76 | 49% / 50% | 57 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 44% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 81.5 | 74 | 43% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 94 | 71% / 50% | 96 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.4 | 40% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 70 | 65% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 7.8 | 38% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 62% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 65 | 61% / 51% | 44 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 45% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 85 | 73% / 50% | 131 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 14 | 63% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 50 | 69% / 50% | 135 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | – | – / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 63.5 | – | – / 51% | 22 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 59.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 59.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 59.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 52.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 58.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 58.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 49.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 49.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 2.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 15.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 15.5 rush attempts (Light boxes, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 70.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 70.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 70.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 70.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 70.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 62.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 62.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 1.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 1.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 68.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 68.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 15.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 65.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 65.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 15.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 69.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 69.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 50.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 14.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 65.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 65.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 50.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 47.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 47.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 10.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 69.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology