QB · CIN · 183 lines since 2023

Joe Burrow Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Joe Burrow, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 12% — we make it 14%
Line 33.5 pass attempts — we project 35 (P(over) 58%)
Line 23.5 completions — we project 23 (P(over) 44%)
Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 2 (P(over) 52%)
Line 258.5 pass yds — we project 266 (P(over) 52%)
Line 8.5 rush yds — we project 9.9 (P(over) 55%)

Over/under record by market

Passing yards over 19, under 20 (39 graded)
Passing TDs over 25, under 14 (39 graded)
Rushing yards over 15, under 22 (37 graded)
Anytime TD over 3, under 36 (39 graded)
Pass attempts over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
Completions over 5, under 3 (8 graded)
Rush attempts over 3, under 4 (7 graded)

Our calls on him: High total (48.5+) 13–7 · Man coverage 0–5 · model 30–34 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–1 · Pressure 2–3 · Starters out on defense 3–4 · Freezing 2–2 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–1 · Short week 1–2 · Low total (40.5 or less) 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Joe Burrow prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 12%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass att	33.5	35	58% / 48%	–	…
2026 W5	Cmp	23.5	23	44% / 53%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	2	52% / 63%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass yds	258.5	266	52% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	8.5	9.9	55% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 10%	1	over
2026 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	2	61% / 63%	1	under
2026 W4	Pass yds	269.5	270	50% / 50%	428	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	8.5	9.7	54% / 50%	6	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 13%	0	under
2026 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	49% / 50%	3	over
2026 W3	Pass yds	252.5	225	39% / 50%	282	over
2026 W3	Rush yds	5.5	8.5	60% / 50%	13	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 10%	0	under
2026 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	39% / 52%	2	over
2026 W2	Pass yds	250.5	231	41% / 50%	207	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	8.5	9.2	52% / 50%	-1	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 12%	0	under
2026 W1	Pass TDs	2.5	2	31% / 36%	1	under
2026 W1	Pass yds	270.5	264	48% / 49%	254	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	8.5	9.1	52% / 50%	20	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 12%	0	under
2025 W18	Pass att	33.5	34	54% / 49%	39	over
2025 W18	Cmp	22.5	23	53% / 50%	29	over
2025 W18	Pass TDs	1.5	2	60% / 61%	3	over
2025 W18	Pass yds	239.5	270	63% / 50%	236	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	4.5	6.9	59% / 50%	17	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 15%	0	under
2025 W17	Pass att	35.5	36	51% / 51%	31	under
2025 W17	Cmp	23.5	23	48% / 55%	24	over
2025 W17	Pass TDs	2.5	2	43% / 41%	2	under
2025 W17	Pass yds	268.5	290	58% / 50%	305	over
2025 W17	Rush att	2.5	2	42% / 43%	3	over
2025 W17	Rush yds	4.5	8.2	63% / 50%	2	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	4% TD chance	4% / 12%	0	under
2025 W16	Pass att	36.5	35	45% / 47%	32	under
2025 W16	Cmp	23.5	23	47% / 52%	25	over
2025 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	2	58% / 63%	4	over
2025 W16	Pass yds	259.5	266	52% / 50%	309	over
2025 W16	Rush att	2.5	1	20% / 43%	2	under
2025 W16	Rush yds	4.5	3.7	47% / 50%	6	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	4% TD chance	4% / 11%	0	under
2025 W15	Pass att	36.5	38	56% / 52%	39	over
2025 W15	Cmp	24.5	24	49% / 49%	25	over
2025 W15	Pass TDs	2.5	2	33% / 37%	0	under
2025 W15	Pass yds	262.5	271	53% / 50%	225	under
2025 W15	Rush att	1.5	1	40% / 58%	2	over
2025 W15	Rush yds	5.5	2.3	37% / 50%	5	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	3% TD chance	3% / 11%	0	under
2025 W14	Pass att	35.5	35	50% / 49%	36	over
2025 W14	Cmp	23.5	23	46% / 47%	25	over
2025 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 59%	4	over
2025 W14	Pass yds	252.5	248	48% / 50%	284	over
2025 W14	Rush att	2.5	1	23% / 42%	0	under
2025 W14	Rush yds	6.5	3.5	39% / 51%	0	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	–	– / 9%	0	under
2025 W13	Pass att	36.5	–	– / 51%	46	over
2025 W13	Cmp	24.5	–	– / 48%	24	under
2025 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 55%	2	over
2025 W13	Pass yds	257.5	–	– / 50%	261	over
2025 W13	Rush att	1.5	–	– / 53%	3	over
2025 W13	Rush yds	5.5	–	– / 49%	8	over
2025 W2	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 13%	0	under
2025 W2	Pass att	36.5	34	38% / 51%	13	under
2025 W2	Cmp	25.5	23	33% / 51%	7	under
2025 W2	Pass TDs	2.5	2	32% / 37%	1	under
2025 W2	Pass yds	272.5	262	45% / 50%	76	under
2025 W2	Rush att	2.5	3	54% / 53%	0	under
2025 W2	Rush yds	9.5	11	54% / 53%	0	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 13%	0	under
2025 W1	Pass att	36.5	34	39% / 52%	23	under
2025 W1	Cmp	24.5	23	42% / 53%	14	under
2025 W1	Pass TDs	2.5	2	31% / 37%	1	under
2025 W1	Pass yds	268.5	267	49% / 50%	113	under
2025 W1	Rush att	2.5	3	60% / 55%	2	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	7.5	12	64% / 50%	3	under
2024 W18	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 13%	0	under
2024 W18	Pass TDs	2.5	2	35% / 42%	1	under
2024 W18	Pass yds	286.5	288	50% / 51%	277	under
2024 W18	Rush yds	9.5	9.8	51% / 50%	-1	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 17%	1	over
2024 W17	Pass TDs	2.5	2	39% / 41%	3	over
2024 W17	Pass yds	283.5	296	54% / 50%	412	over
2024 W17	Rush yds	8.5	8.8	51% / 50%	25	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 22%	0	under
2024 W16	Pass TDs	2.5	2	39% / 43%	3	over
2024 W16	Pass yds	277.5	290	54% / 50%	252	under
2024 W16	Rush yds	7.5	11	59% / 49%	19	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 17%	0	under
2024 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	2	59% / 64%	3	over
2024 W15	Pass yds	276.5	283	53% / 50%	271	under
2024 W15	Rush yds	8.5	12	60% / 52%	0	under
2024 W14	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 18%	0	under
2024 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	2	60% / 67%	3	over
2024 W14	Pass yds	280.5	291	54% / 53%	369	over
2024 W14	Rush yds	8.5	13	62% / 51%	-2	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 19%	0	under
2024 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	2	56% / 58%	3	over
2024 W13	Pass yds	266.5	267	50% / 50%	309	over
2024 W13	Rush yds	9.5	11	54% / 49%	9	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 17%	0	under
2024 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	2	53% / 58%	3	over
2024 W11	Pass yds	266.5	254	45% / 50%	356	over
2024 W11	Rush yds	9.5	9.8	51% / 51%	28	over
2024 W10	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 13%	0	under
2024 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	2	52% / 62%	4	over
2024 W10	Pass yds	273.5	267	47% / 51%	428	over
2024 W10	Rush yds	9.5	11	53% / 50%	6	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 20%	0	under
2024 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 58%	5	over
2024 W9	Pass yds	258.5	253	48% / 50%	251	under
2024 W9	Rush yds	7.5	13	66% / 50%	11	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 15%	0	under
2024 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	1.5	50% / 56%	1	under
2024 W8	Pass yds	254.5	240	44% / 50%	234	under
2024 W8	Rush yds	11.5	12	52% / 49%	15	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 18%	0	under
2024 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 51%	2	over
2024 W7	Pass yds	249.5	226	41% / 49%	181	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	9.5	14	62% / 50%	-3	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 15%	1	over
2024 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	2	55% / 61%	0	under
2024 W6	Pass yds	260.5	253	47% / 50%	208	under
2024 W6	Rush yds	9.5	8.8	47% / 50%	55	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 17%	0	under
2024 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	45% / 51%	5	over
2024 W5	Pass yds	255.5	238	43% / 49%	392	over
2024 W5	Rush yds	9.5	9.1	49% / 50%	1	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 16%	0	under
2024 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	2	50% / 58%	2	over
2024 W4	Pass yds	255.5	237	42% / 50%	232	under
2024 W4	Rush yds	11.5	14	55% / 49%	10	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 22%	0	under
2024 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	2	51% / 60%	3	over
2024 W3	Pass yds	263.5	255	47% / 48%	324	over
2024 W3	Rush yds	10.5	17	67% / 50%	4	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 15%	0	under
2024 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	36% / 43%	2	over
2024 W2	Pass yds	242.5	217	38% / 51%	258	over
2024 W2	Rush yds	12.5	13	51% / 49%	9	under
2024 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 16%	0	under
2024 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 54%	0	under
2024 W1	Pass yds	245.5	–	– / 50%	164	under
2024 W1	Rush yds	9.5	–	– / 49%	15	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 17%	0	under
2023 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	2	52% / 50%	1	under
2023 W11	Pass yds	255.5	247	46% / 50%	101	under
2023 W11	Rush yds	12.5	9.5	41% / 50%	7	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 22%	0	under
2023 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	2	55% / 58%	2	over
2023 W10	Pass yds	275.5	259	44% / 50%	347	over
2023 W10	Rush yds	13.5	11	44% / 47%	20	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 16%	0	under
2023 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	2	57% / 60%	2	over
2023 W9	Pass yds	276.5	261	43% / 51%	348	over
2023 W9	Rush yds	12.5	9.4	41% / 50%	4	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 13%	0	under
2023 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 45%	3	over
2023 W8	Pass yds	249.5	219	37% / 51%	283	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	9.5	5.1	33% / 49%	43	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 17%	0	under
2023 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 55%	2	over
2023 W6	Pass yds	271.5	226	31% / 50%	185	under
2023 W6	Rush yds	8.5	7.1	45% / 51%	4	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	11% TD chance	11% / 17%	0	under
2023 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	38% / 49%	3	over
2023 W5	Pass yds	254.5	237	42% / 50%	317	over
2023 W5	Rush yds	5.5	8.9	63% / 48%	7	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 13%	0	under
2023 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	37% / 50%	0	under
2023 W4	Pass yds	265.5	224	32% / 50%	165	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 10%	0	under
2023 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	39% / 49%	0	under
2023 W3	Pass yds	239.5	231	46% / 48%	259	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 14%	0	under
2023 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	31% / 56%	2	over
2023 W2	Pass yds	260.5	212	28% / 51%	222	under
2023 W2	Rush yds	10.5	10	49% / 46%	5	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 24%	0	under
2023 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 57%	0	under
2023 W1	Pass yds	265.5	–	– / 50%	82	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	9.5	–	– / 50%	-1	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Over 269.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 269.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 252.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 250.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 270.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Under 33.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 22.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 239.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 239.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 239.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 35.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 35.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 23.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 268.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 268.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 268.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 36.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 23.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 259.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 259.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 259.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 36.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 262.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 262.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 35.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 252.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 252.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 252.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 36.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 36.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 24.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 257.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 257.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Over 36.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Under 36.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Under 25.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Over 272.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Under 36.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Under 24.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Under 2.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W1 Over 268.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W18 Under 2.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W18 Under 286.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
2024 W18 Over 286.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Over 283.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2024 W16 Under 277.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2024 W16 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2024 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology