TE · PHI · 89 lines since 2023
Johnny Mundt Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Johnny Mundt, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 7% — we make it 9%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 6, under 10 (16 graded)
- Receptions over 4, under 10 (14 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 51 (54 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 1 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 18–12 · Starters out on defense 3–2 · Dome team outdoors 3–0 · Short week 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.9 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 14 | 60% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 2.5 | 6.3 | 60% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 7.1 | 60% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 10.5 | 6.9 | 39% / 48% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 4.2 | 33% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 4.5 | 28% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 11% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.5 | 41% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 4.8 | 40% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 0 | 25% / 37% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.8 | 48% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 14 | 42% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 41% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 62% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 43% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 10 | 36% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 12 | 27% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 22% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 9.3 | 28% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 20% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 9.0 | 27% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 17% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 5.3 | 12% / 51% | 58 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 1 | 4% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 0 | 21% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 2.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 14.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 7.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 7.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 18.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 18.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 17.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 17.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 20.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology