WR · MIN · 170 lines since 2023
Jordan Addison Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jordan Addison, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 30% — we make it 30%
- Line 19.5 yds longest rec — we project 23 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 40.5 rec yds — we project 48 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 51%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 26, under 24 (50 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 27 (50 graded)
- Anytime TD over 20, under 30 (50 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 8 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 9–13 · Dome team outdoors 10–9 · model 21–35 · Starters out on defense 0–4 · Short week 3–1 · Red-zone defense 0–3 · Wind 15+ mph 2–1 · Explosive plays 4–6 · Play action 0–2 · Middle of the field 4–4 · Missed tackles 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 30% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 61% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 48 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 58 | 47% / 50% | 52 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 34 | 48% / 50% | 90 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 37 | 45% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 48 | 55% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 18.5 | 23 | 63% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 45 | 60% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 57% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 46 | 55% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 56% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 45 | 56% / 51% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 56% / 49% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 46 | 50% / 49% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 59% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 43 | 52% / 49% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 56% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 37 | 55% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 69% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 40 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 22.5 | 25 | 58% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 53 | 55% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 58% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 50 | 52% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 54% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 46 | 51% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 56% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 53 | 49% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 43 | 46% / 49% | 128 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 55% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 51% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 37 | 43% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 54% / 49% | 81 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 38 | 48% / 49% | 114 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 65 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 59 | 50% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 58 | 53% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 59 | 53% / 51% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 60% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 55 | 57% / 50% | 133 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 55 | 56% / 49% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 35 | 50% / 50% | 162 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 59% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 32 | 51% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 39 | 50% / 51% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 45 | 55% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 46 | 49% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 53 | 52% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 58% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 39 | 51% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 37 | 47% / 49% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 28% | – | void |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 37% | – | void |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 43 | 48% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 47 | 51% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 39 | 51% / 49% | 28 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 50 | 50% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 48 | 60% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 66% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 53 | 72% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 65% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 55 | 61% / 54% | 39 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 58 | 63% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 72% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 51 | 51% / 51% | 69 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 40 | 44% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 43 | 32% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 36 | 34% / 49% | 123 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 35% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 33 | 27% / 49% | 28 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 22% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 32 | 36% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 38 | 44% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 39 | 40% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 30 | 34% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | – | – / 51% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 50% | 4 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 36.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 40.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 40.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 40.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 32.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 39.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 47.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 48.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 54.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 42.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 39.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 67.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 54.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 54.5 rec yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology