QB · BUF · 270 lines since 2023
Josh Allen Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Josh Allen, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 56% — we make it 31%
- Line 32.5 pass attempts — we project 33 (P(over) 52%)
- Line 20.5 completions — we project 21 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 244.5 pass yds — we project 252 (P(over) 53%)
- Line 7.5 rush attempts — we project 6 (P(over) 30%)
- Line 36.5 rush yds — we project 27 (P(over) 32%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 26, under 27 (53 graded)
- Passing TDs over 30, under 23 (53 graded)
- Rushing yards over 23, under 30 (53 graded)
- Anytime TD over 33, under 23 (56 graded)
- Pass attempts over 6, under 10 (16 graded)
- Completions over 8, under 8 (16 graded)
- Rush attempts over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: High total (48.5+) 14–17 · model 63–65 · Starters out on defense 5–6 · Man coverage 5–4 · Short week 3–2 · Big favourite (6.5+) 4–2 · Pressure 4–5 · Freezing 4–1 · Wind 15+ mph 4–1 · Play action 0–6 · Two-high shells 1–0 · Low total (40.5 or less) 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 56% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 52% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 56% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 252 | 53% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 7.5 | 6 | 30% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 27 | 32% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 251 | 53% / 50% | 253 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 32 | 51% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 239.5 | 260 | 58% / 50% | 204 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 36 | 54% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 282 | 61% / 50% | 248 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 29 | 48% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 220.5 | 213 | 46% / 50% | 334 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 25 | 40% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 27.5 | 29 | 57% / 48% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 18.5 | 19 | 56% / 48% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 196.5 | 209 | 56% / 50% | 262 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 45% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 29 | 44% / 48% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 27.5 | 28 | 52% / 47% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 18.5 | 19 | 50% / 46% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 207.5 | 211 | 52% / 49% | 130 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 7.5 | 7 | 38% / 47% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 35 | 51% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 29.5 | 31 | 57% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 47% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 237 | 55% / 50% | 193 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 55% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 29 | 36% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 28.5 | 31 | 63% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 58% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 264 | 62% / 50% | 251 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 37% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 31 | 49% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 31.5 | 33 | 60% / 51% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 62% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 246 | 56% / 49% | 123 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 30% / 43% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 25 | 41% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 29.5 | 31 | 58% / 51% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 57% / 47% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 229 | 53% / 50% | 253 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 32% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 26 | 37% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 28.5 | 32 | 66% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 62% / 47% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 44% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 217.5 | 245 | 61% / 51% | 317 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 7.5 | 5 | 20% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 27 | 38% / 51% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 28.5 | 30 | 58% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 21.5 | 20 | 38% / 46% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 248 | 57% / 50% | 306 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 5.5 | 6 | 52% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 31 | 51% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 31.5 | 30 | 44% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 21.5 | 20 | 39% / 48% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 228 | 49% / 50% | 273 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 7.5 | 5 | 18% / 59% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 42.5 | 25 | 24% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 51% / 48% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 47% / 48% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 242 | 56% / 50% | 163 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 7.5 | 6 | 32% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 33 | 55% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 53% / 48% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 50% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 240 | 55% / 51% | 180 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 45% / 53% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 33 | 47% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 29.5 | 31 | 58% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 50% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 250 | 59% / 50% | 253 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 6.5 | 6 | 44% / 52% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 32 | 52% / 51% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 28.5 | 31 | 62% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 54% / 49% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 220.5 | 271 | 70% / 50% | 209 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 6.5 | 7 | 53% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 39 | 69% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 29.5 | 32 | 63% / 49% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 50% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 279 | 66% / 50% | 213 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 6.5 | 7 | 55% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 38 | 63% / 51% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 30.5 | 32 | 58% / 48% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 60% / 52% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 253 | 58% / 50% | 148 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 7.5 | 7 | 43% / 45% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 33 | 45% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 30.5 | 34 | 66% / 51% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 63% / 52% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 249 | 59% / 50% | 394 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 32% / 53% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 25 | 39% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 248 | 62% / 51% | 182 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 36 | 59% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 238.5 | 270 | 62% / 49% | 154 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 40 | 60% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 259.5 | 258 | 49% / 50% | 362 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 41.5 | 27 | 28% / 51% | 68 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 236 | 47% / 50% | 342 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 28 | 44% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 248 | 62% / 50% | 148 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 27 | 33% / 52% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 234 | 49% / 50% | 262 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 23 | 24% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 241 | 56% / 49% | 280 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 23 | 48% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 239.5 | 240 | 50% / 50% | 235 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 25 | 42% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 228 | 49% / 50% | 283 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 24 | 41% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 47% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 231 | 58% / 50% | 323 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 26 | 44% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 36% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 204.5 | 197 | 46% / 50% | 215 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 23 | 24% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 221 | 46% / 50% | 131 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 21 | 29% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 227 | 48% / 51% | 180 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 20 | 26% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 238 | 51% / 50% | 263 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 23 | 33% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 217 | 37% / 52% | 139 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 24 | 31% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 247 | 51% / 50% | 232 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 26 | 35% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Pass yds | 243.5 | 236 | 47% / 51% | 359 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 25 | 31% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 267 | 60% / 51% | 169 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 26 | 42% / 49% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Pass yds | 245.5 | 274 | 62% / 51% | 237 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 29 | 52% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Pass yds | 258.5 | 257 | 50% / 50% | 94 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 25 | 32% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Pass yds | 259.5 | 244 | 44% / 49% | 233 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 22 | 28% / 51% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Pass yds | 256.5 | 277 | 58% / 50% | 339 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 16 | 27% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 229 | 47% / 50% | 275 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 24 | 41% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 62% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass yds | 273.5 | 276 | 51% / 50% | 177 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 22 | 28% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass yds | 272.5 | 252 | 40% / 49% | 258 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 17 | 24% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 60% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Pass yds | 263.5 | 237 | 40% / 50% | 324 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 16 | 37% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Pass yds | 245.5 | 207 | 33% / 50% | 265 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 17 | 42% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Pass yds | 260.5 | 233 | 38% / 50% | 169 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 18 | 31% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Pass yds | 261.5 | 261 | 50% / 50% | 359 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 17 | 22% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Pass yds | 268.5 | 259 | 47% / 50% | 320 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 18 | 19% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 2% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 238 | 43% / 49% | 218 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 16 | 22% / 51% | 46 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 266.5 | 230 | 35% / 50% | 274 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 22 | 24% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 251.5 | – | – / 50% | 236 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 38.5 | – | – / 51% | 36 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Over 243.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 242.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 242.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 239.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 239.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 253.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 253.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 253.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 253.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 27.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 196.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 196.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 27.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 27.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 18.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 207.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 207.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 207.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 207.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 207.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 29.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 224.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 224.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 28.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 231.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 231.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 231.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 232.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 232.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 222.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 222.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 217.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 217.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 217.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology