RB · BAL · 182 lines since 2023
Justice Hill Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Justice Hill, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 18%
- Line 8.5 rec yds — we project 6.9 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 23.5 rush + rec yds — we project 22 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 11.5 rush yds — we project 12 (P(over) 51%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 22, under 14 (36 graded)
- Receiving yards over 21, under 20 (41 graded)
- Receptions over 24, under 16 (40 graded)
- Anytime TD over 9, under 36 (45 graded)
- Rush attempts over 2, under 3 (5 graded)
- Longest reception over 5, under 5 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: model 30–67 · Missed tackles 6–12 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–1 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Pre-snap motion 0–4 · Short week 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 6.9 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 23.5 | 22 | 47% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 12 | 51% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 5.6 | 36% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 53% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 20 | 56% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 10 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 15 | 54% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 10 | 40% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 18 | 63% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 13 | 56% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 19 | 73% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.8 | 47% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 14 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.8 | 51% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 15 | 51% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 47% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 10.5 | 10 | 50% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 16 | 57% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.0 | 43% / 48% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 45% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 39% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 11 | 61% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 9.1 | 53% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 46% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 68% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 15 | 60% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.9 | 53% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 15 | 50% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 10 | 58% / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 9.5 | 10 | 53% / 52% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 15 | 47% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 8.9 | 45% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 9.5 | 9.9 | 52% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 14 | 51% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 39% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 48% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 17 | 47% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 13 | 61% / 50% | -14 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 20 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 12 | 56% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 17 | 52% / 51% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 19 | 52% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 17 | 53% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 15 | 66% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 45% / 52% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 11 | 59% / 49% | 55 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 43% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 11 | 63% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 15 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 16 | 69% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 47% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 39% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 15 | 60% / 48% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 44% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 62% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 15 | 57% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 19 | 53% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 15 | 59% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 19 | 56% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 18 | 55% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 20 | 52% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 17 | 56% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 16 | 51% / 51% | 78 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 16 | 60% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 16 | 59% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 17 | 67% / 52% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 16 | 56% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 14 | 51% / 48% | 22 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 15 | 64% / 52% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 17 | 55% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.9 | 42% / 49% | 64 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 19 | 29% / 51% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 5.3 | 42% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 5.3 | 42% / 52% | 31 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 13 | 41% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 13 | 41% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 6.3 | 68% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 6.3 | 68% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 74% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 74% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 19 | 70% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 9.8 | 54% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 9.8 | 54% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 20 | 55% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.5 | 39% / 49% | 40 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.5 | 39% / 49% | 40 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 23 | 46% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 19 | 33% / 49% | 46 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 19 | 33% / 49% | 46 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 5.2 | 42% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 22 | 44% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 22 | 44% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 0 | 9% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 0 | 9% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 5% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 5% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 10 | 16% / 53% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 10 | 16% / 51% | 41 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | 1 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 16.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 7.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 7.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 7.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 10.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 7.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 10.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 9.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 9.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 17.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 17.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 6.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 6.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology