QB · LAC · 253 lines since 2023
Justin Herbert Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Justin Herbert, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 16% — we make it 15%
- Line 30.5 pass attempts — we project 31 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 18.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 63%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 30%)
- Line 200.5 pass yds — we project 195 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 5.5 rush attempts — we project 4 (P(over) 32%)
- Line 24.5 rush yds — we project 18 (P(over) 36%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 21, under 29 (50 graded)
- Passing TDs over 25, under 25 (50 graded)
- Rushing yards over 26, under 22 (48 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 44 (50 graded)
- Pass attempts over 6, under 10 (16 graded)
- Completions over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
- Rush attempts over 10, under 6 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Man coverage 3–1 · Pressure 5–6 · Dome team outdoors 10–8 · model 39–38 · High total (48.5+) 5–8 · Low total (40.5 or less) 6–3 · Starters out on defense 5–3 · Big favourite (6.5+) 2–0 · Short week 1–1 · Play action 1–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 16% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 55% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 18.5 | 20 | 63% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 34% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 200.5 | 195 | 48% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 32% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 18 | 36% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 67% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 199.5 | 182 | 40% / 50% | 189 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 14 | 36% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 226.5 | 223 | 48% / 51% | 226 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 17 | 45% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 223.5 | 229 | 53% / 50% | 192 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 24 | 60% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 64% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 248 | 55% / 50% | 209 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 27 | 57% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 30.5 | 30 | 48% / 48% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 53% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 211.5 | 199 | 44% / 50% | 236 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 20 | 40% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 55% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 46% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 237 | 48% / 50% | 300 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 21 | 54% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 55% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 56% / 48% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 202.5 | 188 | 42% / 50% | 210 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 18 | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 31.5 | 33 | 58% / 52% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 60% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 214 | 47% / 51% | 139 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 52% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 18 | 49% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 31.5 | 33 | 56% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 50% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 53% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 249 | 55% / 50% | 151 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 26 | 65% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 35.5 | 36 | 50% / 48% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 22.5 | 24 | 57% / 53% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 257 | 52% / 50% | 81 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 5.5 | 4 | 31% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 22 | 50% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 35.5 | 36 | 54% / 48% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 23.5 | 24 | 54% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 255.5 | 271 | 56% / 51% | 220 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 24 | 47% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 55% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 46% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 243.5 | 260 | 58% / 50% | 250 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 68% / 56% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 25 | 68% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass att | 35.5 | 35 | 46% / 48% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Cmp | 23.5 | 23 | 47% / 48% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass yds | 255.5 | 249 | 47% / 50% | 227 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 19 | 55% / 51% | 62 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 35.5 | 35 | 49% / 48% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 24.5 | 23 | 43% / 48% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 256.5 | 267 | 54% / 50% | 420 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 18 | 55% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 34.5 | 34 | 49% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 23.5 | 22 | 42% / 47% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 247.5 | 248 | 50% / 50% | 264 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 21 | 47% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 34.5 | 35 | 51% / 52% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 22.5 | 23 | 50% / 52% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 260.5 | 258 | 49% / 50% | 166 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 18 | 55% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 33.5 | 34 | 54% / 48% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 22.5 | 23 | 50% / 47% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 258 | 52% / 48% | 203 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 18 | 54% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 47% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 53% / 54% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 242 | 46% / 50% | 300 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 19 | 43% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 34.5 | 34 | 47% / 48% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 23.5 | 22 | 41% / 48% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 259.5 | 255 | 48% / 51% | 242 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 56% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 54% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 52% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 45% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 233 | 50% / 51% | 318 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 14 | 46% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 243 | 57% / 51% | 346 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 15 | 51% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 232 | 52% / 50% | 281 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 18 | 54% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 230 | 50% / 50% | 284 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 14 | 59% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 246 | 50% / 51% | 195 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 15 | 52% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 203 | 38% / 51% | 213 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 14 | 36% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 237 | 46% / 50% | 147 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 19 | 45% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 263.5 | 259 | 48% / 52% | 218 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 16 | 42% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 239 | 49% / 50% | 297 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 14 | 47% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 224 | 47% / 50% | 164 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 12 | 64% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 228.5 | 211 | 42% / 50% | 282 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 12 | 60% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 207.5 | 220 | 56% / 50% | 279 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 51% | 49 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 200.5 | 207 | 53% / 51% | 349 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 31% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 180.5 | 190 | 55% / 50% | 237 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 11 | 57% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 182.5 | 173 | 44% / 50% | 179 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 173.5 | 170 | 47% / 50% | 125 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 200.5 | 210 | 55% / 50% | 130 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 15 | 64% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 224.5 | – | – / 51% | 144 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 13.5 | – | – / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Pass yds | 257.5 | 251 | 47% / 50% | 96 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 18 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 233 | 44% / 50% | 212 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 19 | 58% / 51% | -5 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 249 | 49% / 50% | 217 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 15 | 50% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 227 | 39% / 48% | 260 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 14 | 60% / 49% | 73 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Pass yds | 264.5 | 231 | 35% / 50% | 323 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 9.4 | 43% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass yds | 249.5 | 225 | 38% / 50% | 136 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 13 | 53% / 51% | 17 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Pass yds | 263.5 | 277 | 55% / 50% | 298 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 10 | 53% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass yds | 268.5 | 230 | 33% / 48% | 259 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 12 | 38% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Pass yds | 277.5 | 223 | 27% / 47% | 227 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 14 | 51% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 63% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass yds | 280.5 | 267 | 45% / 50% | 167 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 12 | 58% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 282.5 | 256 | 39% / 48% | 405 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 285.5 | 217 | 21% / 50% | 305 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 12 | 57% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 64% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 292.5 | – | – / 50% | 229 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 9.5 | – | – / 51% | 17 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 199.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 199.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 199.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 199.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 226.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 226.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 211.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 211.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 31.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 241.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 241.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 202.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 202.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 236.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 236.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 22.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 252.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 252.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 252.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 35.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 23.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 255.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 255.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 243.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 243.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 243.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 255.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 255.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 35.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 24.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 256.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 256.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 247.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology