WR · MIN · 165 lines since 2023
Justin Jefferson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Justin Jefferson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 39% — we make it 28%
- Line 25.5 yds longest rec — we project 23 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 79.5 rec yds — we project 53 (P(over) 28%)
- Line 6.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 24%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 23, under 24 (47 graded)
- Receptions over 22, under 25 (47 graded)
- Anytime TD over 15, under 33 (48 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 11 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 9–8 · model 27–29 · Middle of the field 12–5 · Missed tackles 5–3 · Pre-snap motion 10–14 · Explosive plays 8–5 · Starters out on defense 1–3 · Short week 2–2 · Wind 15+ mph 0–2 · Play action 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 39% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 25.5 | 23 | 43% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 53 | 28% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 6.5 | 4 | 24% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 45% | – | void |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 63 | 41% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 69 | 41% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 45% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 72 | 47% / 50% | 92 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 40% / 44% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 24.5 | 26 | 56% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 66 | 46% / 51% | 101 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 22.5 | 24 | 54% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 62 | 50% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 50% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 56% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 53 | 45% / 51% | 85 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 58% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 59 | 47% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 23.5 | 25 | 55% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 62 | 48% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 58 | 50% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 22.5 | 22 | 48% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 55 | 40% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 25.5 | 29 | 58% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 75 | 50% / 51% | 61 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 24.5 | 27 | 57% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 74 | 52% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 45% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 25.5 | 26 | 52% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 69 | 47% / 51% | 47 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 54% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 26.5 | 28 | 54% / 52% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 73 | 45% / 50% | 74 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 27.5 | 26 | 46% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 84.5 | 69 | 39% / 49% | 79 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 57% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 52% / 51% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 55 | 38% / 49% | 123 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 24.5 | 27 | 59% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 69 | 46% / 50% | 126 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 24.5 | 29 | 61% / 51% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 77 | 51% / 50% | 75 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 53% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 25.5 | 27 | 54% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 67 | 43% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 25.5 | 28 | 57% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 78.5 | 74 | 47% / 51% | 44 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 41% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 95.5 | 98 | 51% / 51% | 54 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 51% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 90.5 | 87 | 48% / 50% | 92 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 48% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 81 | 50% / 50% | 144 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 42% / 44% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 79 | 49% / 51% | 73 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 37% / 42% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 83.5 | 88 | 52% / 51% | 132 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 40% / 44% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 82.5 | 78 | 47% / 50% | 99 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 38% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 80.5 | 70 | 41% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 80.5 | 68 | 42% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 91.5 | 81 | 42% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 37% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 84.5 | 92 | 55% / 51% | 137 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 47% / 47% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 86.5 | 84 | 48% / 51% | 115 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 42% / 47% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 93.5 | 98 | 53% / 51% | 81 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 48% / 53% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 76.5 | 70 | 45% / 50% | 92 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 79 | 48% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 7% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 86 | 54% / 51% | 81 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 43% / 42% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 49% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 86 | 55% / 50% | 133 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 55% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 45% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 70 | 42% / 51% | 59 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 38% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 101.5 | 74 | 31% / 51% | 192 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 37% / 56% | 12 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 67 | 40% / 53% | 59 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 31% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 58 | 30% / 52% | 141 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 24% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 80.5 | 41 | 17% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 6.5 | 4 | 16% / 44% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 73.5 | 54 | 34% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 6.5 | 4 | 24% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 105.5 | 94 | 43% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 40% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 101.5 | 88 | 42% / 50% | 85 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 47% / 57% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 100.5 | 90 | 43% / 50% | 149 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 42% / 45% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 95.5 | 63 | 25% / 49% | 159 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 7.5 | 6 | 30% / 46% | 11 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 89.5 | – | – / 50% | 150 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 7.5 | – | – / 43% | 9 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Under 74.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 74.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 79.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 79.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 79.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 71.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 71.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 62.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 62.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 62.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 62.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 59.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 59.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 62.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 23.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 63.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 58.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 58.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 22.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 65.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 65.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 25.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 74.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 74.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 71.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 73.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 81.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 81.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 84.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 84.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 68.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 68.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 74.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 74.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 74.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 24.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 76.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 76.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 76.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology