RB · SF · 9 lines since 2023
Kaelon Black Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Kaelon Black, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 16%
- Line 14.5 rush yds — we project 18 (P(over) 57%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 3 (3 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 4 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 0–1 · model 2–1 · Pre-snap motion 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 18 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 23 | 56% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 27 | 42% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 29 | 36% / 49% | 25 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 14.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 20.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 39.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology