WR · DAL · 157 lines since 2023
KaVontae Turpin Player Props
Closing consensus lines for KaVontae Turpin, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 11%
- Line 0.5 rec yds — we project 2.6 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 0.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 55%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 7, under 8 (15 graded)
- Receiving yards over 15, under 15 (30 graded)
- Receptions over 12, under 14 (26 graded)
- Anytime TD over 14, under 49 (63 graded)
- Rush attempts over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 5 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: model 29–24 · Dome team outdoors 6–4 · Pre-snap motion 3–1 · Short week 1–3 · Missed tackles 0–2 · Middle of the field 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 2.6 | 54% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 55% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 16 | 64% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 0 | 33% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 47% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 15 | 44% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 3.2 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 8.5 | 9.5 | 53% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 11 | 50% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 1.1 | 45% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 7.5 | 9.5 | 55% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 11 | 56% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 35% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 2.0 | 42% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 50% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 14 | 50% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 48% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 1.3 | 39% / 46% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 50% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 48% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 0.5 | 1 | 52% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 38% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 9.5 | 10.0 | 51% / 49% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 12 | 51% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 38% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 51% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 14 | 52% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 53% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 17 | 49% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 51% / 51% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 15 | 49% / 49% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 41% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 56% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 21 | 55% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 47% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 22 | 37% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 22% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 1.8 | 33% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 13.5 | 11 | 43% / 49% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 15 | 43% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 37% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 4.5 | 2.8 | 43% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 13.5 | 9.4 | 40% / 48% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 11 | 41% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 2.0 | 39% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 11.5 | 13 | 55% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 18 | 52% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 1.8 | 52% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 16 | 38% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 13 | 50% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 44% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 13 | 64% / 54% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 12 | 51% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 38% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 13 | 35% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 0 | 33% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 12 | 30% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 19% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 32% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 6.3 | 31% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 6.8 | 51% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 6.1 | 51% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 8.3 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 7.0 | 59% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 64% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 38% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 16% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | – | void |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | – | void |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | 1 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W1 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 19.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 19.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 19.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 8.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 13.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 15.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 15.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 0.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 15.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 18.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 18.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 16.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 5.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 12.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 22.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology