WR · HOU · 113 lines since 2023
Kayshon Boutte Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Kayshon Boutte, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 17% — we make it 18%
- Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 13 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 24.5 rec yds — we project 19 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 35%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 14, under 15 (29 graded)
- Receptions over 13, under 15 (28 graded)
- Anytime TD over 8, under 30 (38 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 6 (14 graded)
Our calls on him: model 23–27 · Freezing 2–2 · Pre-snap motion 2–1 · Starters out on defense 0–3 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 13 | 44% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 19 | 42% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 28 | 57% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 69% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 34 | 46% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 25 | 36% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 36 | 68% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 81% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 55% / 48% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 36 | 58% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 38% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 33 | 49% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 52% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 32 | 53% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 51% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 33 | 51% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 18.5 | 24 | 63% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 44 | 65% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 61% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 45 | 57% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 55% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 36 | 56% / 50% | 75 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 17.5 | 21 | 61% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 43 | 64% / 51% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 67% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 63% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 39 | 62% / 52% | 93 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 60% / 51% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 35 | 60% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 41% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 62% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 39 | 61% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 59% / 51% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 38 | 54% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 63% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 54% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 41 | 48% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 11.5 | 24 | 85% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 57 | 88% / 50% | 103 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 4 | 92% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 36 | 52% / 50% | 117 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 34 | 46% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 27 | 50% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 29 | 47% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 29 | 47% / 52% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2.5 | 50% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 30 | 45% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 26 | 41% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 18 | 39% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 62% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 12 | 30% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 8.7 | 30% / 49% | 46 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 10 | 32% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 29.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 30.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 32.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 32.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 30.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 30.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 30.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 30.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 27.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 33.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology