WR · CLE · 19 lines since 2023
KC Concepcion Player Props
Closing consensus lines for KC Concepcion, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 26% — we make it 20%
- Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 17 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 40.5 rec yds — we project 33 (P(over) 41%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 32%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 3 (3 graded)
- Receiving yards over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 3, under 1 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 4 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 6–3 · Short week 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 26% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 55% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 33 | 41% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 31 | 42% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 29 | 44% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 0.8 | 31% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 23 | 31% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 0 | 21% / 50% | -6 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 33.5 | – | – / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 48% | 4 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 36.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 5.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology