WR · IND · 162 lines since 2023
Keenan Allen Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Keenan Allen, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 16%
- Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 18 (P(over) 59%)
- Line 29.5 rec yds — we project 39 (P(over) 62%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 58%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 24, under 23 (47 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 24 (47 graded)
- Anytime TD over 15, under 33 (48 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 31–25 · Middle of the field 3–8 · Pre-snap motion 2–10 · Starters out on defense 4–1 · Dome team outdoors 5–5 · Short week 2–1 · Freezing 1–1 · Missed tackles 2–5 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Explosive plays 1–3 · Red-zone defense 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 59% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 39 | 62% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 47% | – | … |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 41 | 61% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 35 | 58% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 49 | 73% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 65% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 57% / 52% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 36 | 52% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 15.5 | 22 | 71% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 49 | 61% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 17 | 57% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 35 | 54% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 55% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 41 | 53% / 51% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 17.5 | 22 | 64% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 48 | 60% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 17.5 | 22 | 66% / 49% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 53 | 66% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 41% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 17.5 | 24 | 70% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 56 | 65% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 54% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 18.5 | 23 | 65% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 54 | 61% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 62% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 53 | 52% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 17.5 | 24 | 70% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 56 | 59% / 51% | 119 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 57% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 20.5 | 24 | 62% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 59 | 50% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 57% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 51 | 47% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 42% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 62% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 53 | 53% / 52% | 37 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 61% / 52% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 53 | 49% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 59% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 51 | 48% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 17.5 | 23 | 70% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 58 | 67% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 71% / 58% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 49 | 47% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 59% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 58 | 49% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 53 | 49% / 50% | 141 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 43% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 49 | 48% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 55 | 55% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 60% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 48 | 45% / 51% | 73 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 45% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 38 | 50% / 49% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 58% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 40 | 49% / 49% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 46 | 56% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 43 | 48% / 51% | 36 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 42% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 38 | 41% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 44 | 48% / 49% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 41 | 47% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 43 | 51% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 48 | 46% / 49% | 29 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 84.5 | 83 | 49% / 50% | 68 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 49% / 48% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 87.5 | 72 | 38% / 50% | 58 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 42% / 55% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 88.5 | 90 | 51% / 48% | 106 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 7.5 | 8 | 52% / 54% | 14 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 85.5 | 80 | 46% / 50% | 116 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 41% / 47% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 80.5 | 75 | 45% / 51% | 175 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 6.5 | 7 | 52% / 55% | 11 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 74.5 | 88 | 60% / 50% | 77 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 6.5 | 8 | 63% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 81.5 | 100 | 63% / 50% | 69 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 7.5 | 8 | 52% / 46% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 82 | 52% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 7.5 | 8 | 51% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 83.5 | 83 | 50% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 7.5 | 7 | 47% / 44% | 7 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 86.5 | 99 | 60% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 7.5 | 8 | 55% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 77 | 51% / 50% | 215 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 45% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 67 | 47% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 42% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 66.5 | – | – / 50% | 76 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 6.5 | – | – / 41% | 6 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W3 Over 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 29.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 34.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 38.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 38.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 32.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 32.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 38.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 38.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 41.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 41.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 43.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 43.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 50.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 47.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 59.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 50.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 51.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 51.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 58.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 54.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 50.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology