Edgehalla

WR · ARI · 118 lines since 2023

Kendrick Bourne Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Kendrick Bourne, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 24% — we make it 17%
  • Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 52%)
  • Line 31.5 rec yds — we project 26 (P(over) 43%)
  • Line 3.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 29%)

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 18, under 15 (33 graded)
  • Receptions over 15, under 16 (31 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 4, under 35 (39 graded)
  • Longest reception over 7, under 4 (11 graded)

Our calls on him: model 24–30 · Pre-snap motion 1–2 · Starters out on defense 5–3 · Short week 0–1 · Freezing 1–0 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Middle of the field 1–1 · Red-zone defense 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Kendrick Bourne prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 24%–…
2026 W5Long rec15.51652% / 51%–…
2026 W5Rec yds31.52643% / 50%–…
2026 W5Rec3.5229% / 47%–…
2026 W4Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 16%0under
2026 W4Rec yds20.52456% / 50%0under
2026 W4Rec2.5245% / 40%0under
2026 W3Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 14%0under
2026 W3Rec yds24.52754% / 50%22under
2026 W3Rec2.5356% / 50%2under
2026 W2Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 14%0under
2026 W2Rec yds24.52550% / 51%11under
2026 W2Rec2.5355% / 53%2under
2026 W1Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 13%0under
2026 W1Rec yds18.52560% / 51%75over
2026 W1Rec2.5247% / 39%8over
2025 W18Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 19%0under
2025 W18Rec yds30.52339% / 50%0under
2025 W17Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 17%0under
2025 W17Long rec11.51866% / 50%25over
2025 W17Rec yds14.52868% / 50%25over
2025 W17Rec1.5267% / 43%1under
2025 W16Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 18%0under
2025 W16Long rec14.51861% / 50%14under
2025 W16Rec yds24.53057% / 50%27over
2025 W16Rec2.5248% / 41%3over
2025 W15Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 7%0under
2025 W13Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 6%0under
2025 W12Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 8%0under
2025 W11Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 14%0under
2025 W11Long rec9.52077% / 48%0under
2025 W10Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 20%0under
2025 W10Long rec16.52061% / 51%19over
2025 W10Rec yds33.53955% / 50%19under
2025 W10Rec2.5364% / 57%1under
2025 W9Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 23%0under
2025 W9Long rec18.52156% / 49%21over
2025 W9Rec yds37.53850% / 50%34under
2025 W9Rec3.5341% / 45%2under
2025 W8Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 18%0under
2025 W8Long rec16.51853% / 51%18over
2025 W8Rec yds33.53249% / 50%44over
2025 W8Rec3.5340% / 45%3under
2025 W7Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 34%0under
2025 W7Long rec19.52257% / 49%10under
2025 W7Rec yds48.54547% / 50%14under
2025 W7Rec4.5334% / 47%2under
2025 W6Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 27%0under
2025 W6Long rec18.51953% / 49%56over
2025 W6Rec yds45.54043% / 50%142over
2025 W6Rec4.5439% / 43%5over
2025 W5Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 23%0under
2025 W5Long rec18.51743% / 48%35over
2025 W5Rec yds41.53239% / 50%142over
2025 W5Rec3.5347% / 56%10over
2025 W4Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 15%0under
2025 W4Long rec12.51763% / 48%17over
2025 W4Rec yds17.52968% / 49%17under
2025 W3Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 23%0under
2025 W3Long rec15.51241% / 51%11under
2025 W3Rec yds31.51729% / 50%38over
2025 W3Rec2.5233% / 55%4over
2024 W18Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 19%0under
2024 W17Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 16%0under
2024 W17Rec yds21.52046% / 51%22over
2024 W17Rec2.5244% / 43%2under
2024 W16Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 17%0under
2024 W16Rec yds21.52047% / 50%18under
2024 W16Rec2.5245% / 38%2under
2024 W15Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 22%0under
2024 W15Rec yds24.52145% / 50%44over
2024 W15Rec2.5242% / 44%3over
2024 W13Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 19%0under
2024 W13Rec yds24.52145% / 50%39over
2024 W13Rec2.5242% / 48%3over
2024 W12Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 22%0under
2024 W12Rec yds26.51836% / 49%30over
2024 W12Rec2.5238% / 46%3over
2024 W11Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 17%1over
2024 W9Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 18%0under
2024 W9Rec yds16.59.237% / 49%41over
2024 W9Rec1.5138% / 47%4over
2024 W8Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 13%0under
2024 W8Rec yds22.59.725% / 50%0under
2024 W8Rec2.5122% / 40%0under
2024 W7Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 15%0under
2024 W7Rec yds18.51236% / 50%14under
2024 W7Rec1.5146% / 58%1under
2024 W6Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 13%0under
2024 W6Rec yds16.59.536% / 49%9under
2024 W6Rec1.5145% / 45%2over
2024 W5Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 17%0under
2024 W5Rec yds19.52760% / 51%6under
2024 W5Rec1.5376% / 62%1under
2023 W8Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 25%1over
2023 W8Rec yds45.54651% / 50%36under
2023 W8Rec4.5550% / 44%3under
2023 W7Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 25%1over
2023 W7Rec yds37.54459% / 52%63over
2023 W7Rec3.5570% / 54%6over
2023 W6Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 27%0under
2023 W6Rec yds40.54151% / 50%89over
2023 W6Rec3.5454% / 51%10over
2023 W5Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 24%0under
2023 W5Rec yds30.53859% / 50%43over
2023 W5Rec2.5367% / 57%2under
2023 W4Any TD–23% TD chance23% / 24%0under
2023 W4Rec yds30.53963% / 51%36over
2023 W4Rec2.5473% / 59%2under
2023 W3Any TD–29% TD chance29% / 20%0under
2023 W3Rec yds30.54164% / 50%46over
2023 W3Rec2.5472% / 59%4over
2023 W2Any TD–24% TD chance24% / 31%0under
2023 W2Rec yds41.54453% / 50%29under
2023 W2Rec3.5459% / 49%4over
2023 W1Any TD––– / 24%1over
2023 W1Rec yds38.5–– / 50%64over
2023 W1Rec3.5–– / 46%6over

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W1 Over 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Over 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Over 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Under 33.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W9 Over 37.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 48.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Over 45.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Under 41.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W4 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W3 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W3 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W3 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W16 Under 21.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W16 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W15 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W13 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W12 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W12 Under 26.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W12 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W9 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W9 Under 16.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W9 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W8 Under 22.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W8 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W7 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W7 Over 18.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W7 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W6 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W6 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W5 Over 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W5 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W8 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W8 Under 45.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology