WR · BUF · 105 lines since 2023
Keon Coleman Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Keon Coleman, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 30% — we make it 28%
- Line 19.5 yds longest rec — we project 22 (P(over) 58%)
- Line 38.5 rec yds — we project 44 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 52%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 12, under 15 (27 graded)
- Receptions over 13, under 14 (27 graded)
- Anytime TD over 9, under 21 (30 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 9 (12 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 2–3 · model 26–35 · Short week 2–1 · Freezing 3–0 · Pre-snap motion 2–1 · Wind 15+ mph 1–2 · Missed tackles 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 30% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 58% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 44 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 41% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 30 | 73% / 49% | 116 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 70% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 28 | 67% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 31 | 77% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 75% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 17% | – | void |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 20% | – | void |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 13.5 | 17 | 58% / 50% | – | void |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 26 | 64% / 50% | – | void |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 48% | – | void |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 10.5 | 20 | 76% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 36 | 79% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 79% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 23 | 71% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 43 | 75% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 81% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 14.5 | 21 | 68% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 40 | 71% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 3 | 83% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 17.5 | 22 | 63% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 43 | 59% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 60% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 44 | 54% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 19.5 | 25 | 64% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 54 | 61% / 49% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 60% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 47 | 54% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 62% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 45 | 55% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 19.5 | 26 | 65% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 48 | 57% / 49% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 20.5 | 27 | 64% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 51 | 58% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 20.5 | 27 | 63% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 51 | 57% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 19.5 | 25 | 61% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 46 | 59% / 51% | 112 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 33 | 60% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 36% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 35 | 58% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 42 | 63% / 48% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 52 | 53% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 37 | 59% / 49% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 27 | 57% / 50% | 125 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 64% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 36 | 55% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 41 | 51% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 31 | 56% / 49% | 51 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 43 | 56% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 52 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 32.5 | – | – / 49% | 51 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 54% | 4 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 13.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 14.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W16 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W16 Under 16.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) void
- 2025 W16 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) void
- 2025 W16 Over 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W16 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) void
- 2025 W16 Under 16.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) void
- 2025 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) void
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 14.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 20.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 20.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 34.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 34.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 43.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology