WR · BUF · 165 lines since 2023
Khalil Shakir Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Khalil Shakir, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 32% — we make it 29%
- Line 19.5 yds longest rec — we project 22 (P(over) 58%)
- Line 46.5 rec yds — we project 47 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 44%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 24, under 22 (46 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 18 (45 graded)
- Anytime TD over 10, under 42 (52 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 4–5 · model 27–38 · Missed tackles 5–6 · Short week 1–4 · Pre-snap motion 4–4 · Freezing 4–1 · Wind 15+ mph 5–0 · Middle of the field 3–4 · Explosive plays 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 22 | 58% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 47 | 50% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 36 | 48% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 56% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 50 | 57% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 42 | 49% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 37 | 51% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 60% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 44 | 56% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 54% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 36 | 45% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 55% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 40 | 46% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 34% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 62% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 49 | 54% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 20.5 | 22 | 53% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 52 | 50% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 19.5 | 20 | 53% / 48% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 48 | 56% / 50% | 110 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 18.5 | 21 | 59% / 49% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 47 | 49% / 51% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 18.5 | 22 | 61% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 49 | 52% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 55% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 46 | 45% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 19.5 | 23 | 61% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 52 | 54% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 52% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 44 | 43% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 41 | 46% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 17.5 | 22 | 61% / 52% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 40 | 50% / 49% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 53% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 18.5 | 23 | 62% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 43 | 51% / 52% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 29% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 44 | 46% / 48% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 48% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 43 | 46% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 16% | – | void |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 47 | 51% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 49 | 49% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 58 | 49% / 51% | 39 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 56 | 44% / 50% | 106 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 57 | 52% / 51% | 30 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 64 | 53% / 52% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 55% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 55 | 42% / 49% | 58 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 42% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 43 | 39% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 35% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 31 | 38% / 50% | 107 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 52% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 27 | 39% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 31% / 42% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 30 | 45% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 36 | 36% / 49% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 37 | 39% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 26 | 30% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 45 | 51% / 52% | 42 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 46% / 52% | 105 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 24 | 52% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 38% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 20 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 23 | 41% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 26 | 41% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 18 | 36% / 49% | 115 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 21 | 29% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 20% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 16 | 28% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 5.5 | 25% / 51% | 92 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 7.5 | – | – / 51% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 37.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 43.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 43.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 39.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 39.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 44.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 44.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 44.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 44.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 51.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 51.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 51.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 42.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 42.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 42.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 48.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 47.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 50.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 42.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 47.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 46.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 46.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology