RB · LAC · 95 lines since 2023
Kimani Vidal Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Kimani Vidal, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 15%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
- Receiving yards over 6, under 7 (13 graded)
- Receptions over 3, under 8 (11 graded)
- Anytime TD over 6, under 21 (27 graded)
- Rush attempts over 6, under 4 (10 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: model 32–27 · Pre-snap motion 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 4–3 · Missed tackles 3–3 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–1 · Short week 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 6% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 44% TD chance | 44% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 6.5 | 6.2 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 7.1 | 49% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 10.5 | 10 | 46% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 43 | 62% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 4.5 | 4.3 | 49% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 5.0 | 52% / 49% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 7.5 | 10 | 70% / 58% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 35 | 54% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 9.5 | 13 | 76% / 47% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 52 | 69% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.7 | 42% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 6.7 | 41% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 17.5 | 14 | 30% / 46% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 62 | 45% / 50% | 126 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 7.5 | 5.2 | 40% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 6.3 | 37% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 17.5 | 11 | 13% / 48% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 66.5 | 47 | 27% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 8.5 | 5.5 | 37% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 6.4 | 36% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 13.5 | 9 | 21% / 45% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 41 | 43% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.3 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 7.7 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 18% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 17.5 | 11 | 12% / 47% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 76.5 | 56 | 30% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 9.5 | 5.5 | 33% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 6.8 | 27% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 18% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush att | 15.5 | 9 | 12% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 44 | 32% / 51% | 117 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 9.5 | 3.4 | 26% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 3.8 | 20% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 10% / 48% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 13.5 | 7 | 5% / 46% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 53.5 | 35 | 28% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 0 | 19% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 8% / 39% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 6.5 | 2 | 4% / 54% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 8.5 | 13% / 50% | 124 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 45 | 77% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 3.9 | 27% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 19 | 33% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 15 | 30% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 9.7 | 34% / 52% | 34 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | – | void |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | – | void |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 0 | 37% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 9.2 | 33% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 3.4 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 7.5 | 23% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 5.3 | 53% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 5.6 | 18% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | – | – / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | – | void |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 9% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 34.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 34.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 32.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 32.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 9.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 38.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 65.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 66.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 66.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 47.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 17.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 76.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 76.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 76.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 76.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 59.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 59.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 53.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 27.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 27.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology