QB · LV · 156 lines since 2023
Kirk Cousins Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Kirk Cousins, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 5% — we make it 7%
- Line 33.5 pass attempts — we project 33 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 22.5 completions — we project 21 (P(over) 40%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 234.5 pass yds — we project 214 (P(over) 39%)
- Line 0.5 rush yds — we project 4.7 (P(over) 73%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 17, under 17 (34 graded)
- Passing TDs over 18, under 16 (34 graded)
- Rushing yards over 9, under 18 (27 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 33 (34 graded)
- Pass attempts over 5, under 3 (8 graded)
- Completions over 4, under 4 (8 graded)
- Rush attempts over 3, under 2 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 4–6 · model 24–35 · Low total (40.5 or less) 1–2 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–4 · High total (48.5+) 3–6 · Starters out on defense 5–5 · Man coverage 3–2 · Short week 0–3 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1 · Pressure 1–1 · Blitz-heavy defense 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 46% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 40% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 45% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 214 | 39% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.7 | 73% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 223.5 | 207 | 43% / 50% | 365 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.6 | 77% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 38% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 211.5 | 200 | 44% / 50% | 248 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 6.1 | 78% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 32% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 193.5 | 188 | 47% / 50% | 253 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 6.1 | 77% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 204.5 | 208 | 51% / 50% | 160 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 7.9 | 81% / 43% | -6 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass att | 30.5 | 29 | 43% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Cmp | 19.5 | 19 | 43% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass yds | 207.5 | 202 | 47% / 50% | 180 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 61% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.0 | 69% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 49% / 52% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 56% / 55% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 218 | 47% / 49% | 126 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 0.5 | 1 | 74% / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 1.2 | 56% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 31.5 | 31 | 47% / 49% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 46% / 52% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 230 | 50% / 50% | 197 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 41% / 37% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 52% / 52% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 19.5 | 19 | 50% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 25% / 34% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 208.5 | 187 | 39% / 51% | 373 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 42% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 33.5 | 32 | 45% / 49% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 44% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 206.5 | 197 | 45% / 51% | 162 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0.3 | 49% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 28.5 | 30 | 57% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 18.5 | 19 | 56% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 189.5 | 195 | 53% / 52% | 234 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 2.5 | 62% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 30.5 | – | – / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 20.5 | – | – / 48% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 33% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 204.5 | – | – / 50% | 199 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 1.5 | – | – / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 0.5 | – | – / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass att | 30.5 | – | – / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Cmp | 20.5 | – | – / 52% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Pass yds | 224.5 | – | – / 50% | 173 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 248 | 52% / 51% | 112 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | -0.5 | 3.2 | 87% / 64% | 0 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass yds | 239.5 | 219 | 41% / 48% | 344 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 239.5 | 236 | 49% / 50% | 245 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 220 | 41% / 50% | 173 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 235 | 46% / 50% | 306 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.2 | 72% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 255.5 | 252 | 49% / 50% | 222 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 6.0 | 76% / 49% | -11 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 259 | 56% / 52% | 276 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.5 | 67% / 40% | 16 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 266.5 | 262 | 48% / 50% | 232 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 249 | 49% / 50% | 225 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.5 | 73% / 37% | -5 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 235.5 | 233 | 49% / 50% | 509 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.2 | 73% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 217.5 | 217 | 50% / 52% | 238 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 6.7 | 79% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 216 | 42% / 50% | 230 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 8.9 | 83% / 47% | -1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 209 | 41% / 51% | 241 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 243.5 | 224 | 42% / 50% | 155 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 13 | 80% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 211 | 31% / 50% | 274 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 5.5 | 59% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 201 | 30% / 50% | 378 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 3.9 | 57% / 51% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass yds | 255.5 | 222 | 35% / 50% | 181 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 5.9 | 67% / 49% | -5 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Pass yds | 293.5 | 241 | 30% / 50% | 284 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Pass yds | 280.5 | 248 | 37% / 50% | 139 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 10 | 77% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 293.5 | 259 | 36% / 52% | 367 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 13 | 79% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 270.5 | 203 | 21% / 50% | 364 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 13 | 81% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 271.5 | – | – / 50% | 344 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 3.5 | – | – / 50% | 7 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 225.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 223.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 211.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 204.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 33.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 33.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 20.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 225.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 225.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 0.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 31.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 20.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 230.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 230.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 208.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 208.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 208.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 208.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 208.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 33.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 21.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 206.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 189.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 189.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 189.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 242.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over -0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 239.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 239.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 239.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Over 239.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 240.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Under 240.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 244.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 244.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 255.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology