WR · LAR · 33 lines since 2023
Konata Mumpfield Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Konata Mumpfield, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 12% — we make it 16%
- Line 7.5 yds longest rec — we project 13 (P(over) 61%)
- Line 7.5 rec yds — we project 16 (P(over) 62%)
- Line 0.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 74%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 19 (21 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
Our calls on him: model 5–5 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 0–1 · Short week 0–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 12% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 13 | 61% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 16 | 62% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 74% / 60% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 4.5 | 31% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 22% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 7.3 | 35% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 8.5 | 29% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 10% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 10.5 | 0 | 23% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 0 | 20% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 14% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 23.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 14.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 14.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 14.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology