RB · CHI · 93 lines since 2023
Kyle Monangai Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Kyle Monangai, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 44% — we make it 38%
- Line 11.5 rush attempts — we project 11 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 48.5 rush yds — we project 54 (P(over) 57%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 11, under 7 (18 graded)
- Receiving yards over 7, under 8 (15 graded)
- Receptions over 7, under 7 (14 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 14 (21 graded)
- Rush attempts over 7, under 6 (13 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 6 (9 graded)
Our calls on him: model 16–16 · Pre-snap motion 2–4 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Missed tackles 5–2 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 11.5 | 11 | 48% / 54% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 54 | 57% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 3.5 | 42% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 62% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 42 | 53% / 50% | 146 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.4 | 39% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 43 | 57% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 6.4 | 39% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 45 | 61% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 13 | 67% / 48% | 24 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 34% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 49 | 71% / 50% | 100 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 6.5 | 53% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 8.5 | 9 | 58% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 47 | 52% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 6.5 | 5.3 | 46% / 48% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 6.0 | 49% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 10.5 | 9 | 33% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 40 | 46% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 4.5 | 3.8 | 47% / 48% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 4.1 | 52% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 65% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 11.5 | 11 | 46% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 51 | 54% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 3.5 | 1.3 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 1.3 | 44% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 53% / 61% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 12.5 | 10 | 29% / 54% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 45 | 37% / 50% | 33 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 2.5 | 2.3 | 49% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 2.4 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 58% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 11.5 | 8 | 25% / 47% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 35 | 34% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 2.5 | 1.9 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 1.9 | 48% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 57% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 8.5 | 7 | 40% / 54% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 28 | 39% / 50% | 130 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 3.7 | 51% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 66% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 8.5 | 7 | 38% / 47% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 34 | 51% / 47% | 48 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 7.5 | 7 | 42% / 46% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 43% TD chance | 43% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 5.5 | 5.1 | 49% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 5.9 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 9.5 | 10 | 57% / 52% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 55 | 59% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 65% TD chance | 65% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.3 | 46% / 49% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 11 | 36% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 16.5 | 17 | 52% / 53% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 75.5 | 85 | 59% / 49% | 176 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 6.5 | 5.6 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.7 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 30 | 52% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 1.5 | 53% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 49% / 54% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 50% | 81 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 16.5 | 12 | 37% / 52% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 16 | 46% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 24% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 38.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 36.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 31.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 45.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 45.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 45.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 43.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 48.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 48.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 12.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 55.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 55.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 11.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 45.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 45.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 45.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 45.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 8.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 34.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 8.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 33.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 33.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 32.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 47.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 47.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 47.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 75.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 75.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 29.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 16.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology