TE · ATL · 186 lines since 2023

Kyle Pitts Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Kyle Pitts, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 23% — we make it 20%
Line 14.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 57%)
Line 23.5 rec yds — we project 28 (P(over) 57%)
Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 56%)

Over/under record by market

Receiving yards over 29, under 26 (55 graded)
Receptions over 25, under 30 (55 graded)
Anytime TD over 9, under 46 (55 graded)
Longest reception over 9, under 8 (17 graded)

Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 9–7 · Pre-snap motion 6–5 · model 32–35 · Short week 1–2 · Dome team outdoors 6–10 · Missed tackles 0–1 · Middle of the field 1–3 · Freezing 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Kyle Pitts prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 23%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	14.5	16	57% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	23.5	28	57% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	2.5	3	56% / 46%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 25%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	31.5	27	45% / 50%	47	over
2026 W4	Rec	2.5	3	56% / 59%	3	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 22%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	36.5	27	37% / 50%	5	under
2026 W3	Rec	3.5	3	41% / 51%	1	under
2026 W2	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 22%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	31.5	32	51% / 50%	15	under
2026 W2	Rec	3.5	3	49% / 46%	1	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 21%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	38.5	38	50% / 51%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec	4.5	5	51% / 44%	0	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 36%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	17.5	19	56% / 51%	15	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	44.5	41	47% / 50%	58	over
2025 W18	Rec	4.5	4	42% / 48%	6	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 32%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	19.5	19	49% / 50%	11	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	51.5	46	44% / 49%	16	under
2025 W17	Rec	4.5	5	53% / 57%	2	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 34%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	19.5	22	58% / 50%	12	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	52.5	53	51% / 50%	57	over
2025 W16	Rec	4.5	5	53% / 56%	7	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 31%	1	over
2025 W15	Long rec	19.5	18	43% / 50%	36	over
2025 W15	Rec yds	55.5	41	33% / 50%	166	over
2025 W15	Rec	5.5	4	34% / 47%	11	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 29%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	18.5	17	43% / 51%	30	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	52.5	38	34% / 50%	90	over
2025 W14	Rec	5.5	4.5	37% / 49%	6	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 29%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	17.5	18	51% / 50%	24	over
2025 W13	Rec yds	43.5	38	43% / 50%	82	over
2025 W13	Rec	4.5	4	44% / 49%	7	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 29%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	18.5	17	44% / 50%	23	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	50.5	38	35% / 50%	25	under
2025 W12	Rec	5.5	4	33% / 44%	2	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 27%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	19.5	19	46% / 49%	7	under
2025 W11	Rec yds	47.5	40	41% / 50%	14	under
2025 W11	Rec	4.5	4	42% / 49%	2	under
2025 W10	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 28%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	18.5	17	45% / 49%	25	over
2025 W10	Rec yds	45.5	38	41% / 50%	38	under
2025 W10	Rec	4.5	4	47% / 56%	2	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 27%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	18.5	16	43% / 49%	22	over
2025 W9	Rec yds	44.5	37	41% / 51%	38	under
2025 W9	Rec	4.5	4	50% / 43%	4	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 42%	0	under
2025 W8	Long rec	19.5	19	48% / 49%	24	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	50.5	39	38% / 50%	59	over
2025 W8	Rec	4.5	4	38% / 54%	9	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 26%	0	under
2025 W7	Long rec	16.5	16	49% / 50%	19	over
2025 W7	Rec yds	37.5	32	44% / 51%	62	over
2025 W7	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 54%	7	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 29%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	18.5	18	47% / 51%	10	under
2025 W6	Rec yds	43.5	35	39% / 50%	18	under
2025 W6	Rec	3.5	3	50% / 57%	3	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 24%	1	over
2025 W4	Long rec	17.5	16	44% / 51%	26	over
2025 W4	Rec yds	38.5	28	36% / 50%	70	over
2025 W4	Rec	3.5	3	38% / 53%	5	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 26%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	18.5	16	43% / 49%	17	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	40.5	29	37% / 50%	39	under
2025 W3	Rec	3.5	3	37% / 50%	4	over
2025 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 22%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	15.5	16	51% / 52%	14	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	34.5	30	42% / 50%	37	over
2025 W2	Rec	3.5	3	44% / 45%	4	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 28%	0	under
2025 W1	Long rec	16.5	18	55% / 51%	14	under
2025 W1	Rec yds	39.5	34	45% / 50%	59	over
2025 W1	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 44%	7	over
2024 W18	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 34%	0	under
2024 W18	Rec yds	28.5	31	53% / 51%	15	under
2024 W18	Rec	2.5	2	49% / 52%	2	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 21%	1	over
2024 W17	Rec yds	21.5	22	51% / 50%	44	over
2024 W17	Rec	2.5	2	44% / 39%	4	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 28%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	26.5	29	53% / 49%	7	under
2024 W16	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 50%	1	under
2024 W15	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 25%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	30.5	33	53% / 51%	28	under
2024 W15	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 53%	4	over
2024 W14	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 23%	0	under
2024 W14	Rec yds	33.5	27	41% / 50%	14	under
2024 W14	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 57%	1	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 28%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	39.5	34	43% / 50%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec	3.5	3	39% / 46%	0	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 29%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	41.5	35	44% / 50%	9	under
2024 W11	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 53%	1	under
2024 W10	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 32%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	40.5	39	48% / 50%	55	over
2024 W10	Rec	3.5	3	43% / 51%	4	over
2024 W9	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 36%	0	under
2024 W9	Rec yds	47.5	40	42% / 49%	11	under
2024 W9	Rec	4.5	3	28% / 42%	1	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 32%	1	over
2024 W8	Rec yds	42.5	39	46% / 50%	91	over
2024 W8	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 55%	4	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 33%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	40.5	36	45% / 51%	65	over
2024 W7	Rec	3.5	3	38% / 51%	7	over
2024 W6	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 35%	0	under
2024 W6	Rec yds	34.5	32	47% / 50%	70	over
2024 W6	Rec	3.5	3	36% / 41%	3	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 28%	0	under
2024 W5	Rec yds	30.5	27	45% / 51%	88	over
2024 W5	Rec	2.5	2	49% / 57%	7	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 29%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec yds	35.5	30	44% / 50%	0	under
2024 W4	Rec	3.5	3	36% / 43%	0	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 34%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	40.5	29	35% / 50%	59	over
2024 W3	Rec	3.5	3	38% / 51%	2	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 32%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	40.5	30	37% / 51%	20	under
2024 W2	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 55%	3	under
2024 W1	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 35%	1	over
2024 W1	Rec yds	45.5	42	46% / 50%	26	under
2024 W1	Rec	3.5	4	52% / 61%	3	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 22%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	29.5	30	51% / 50%	27	under
2023 W18	Rec	2.5	3	58% / 58%	2	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 22%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	35.5	33	47% / 50%	5	under
2023 W17	Rec	2.5	3	66% / 60%	1	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 27%	1	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	38.5	37	48% / 50%	49	over
2023 W16	Rec	3.5	3	44% / 45%	3	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 21%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	33.5	28	42% / 49%	37	over
2023 W15	Rec	2.5	3	60% / 60%	3	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 25%	1	over
2023 W14	Rec yds	37.5	37	49% / 50%	57	over
2023 W14	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 48%	3	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 21%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	30.5	26	43% / 50%	51	over
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	3	59% / 55%	4	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 24%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	36.5	33	46% / 51%	22	under
2023 W12	Rec	3.5	3	44% / 45%	2	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 26%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	35.5	34	48% / 50%	30	under
2023 W10	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 46%	3	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 29%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	42.5	39	46% / 50%	56	over
2023 W9	Rec	3.5	4	53% / 55%	4	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 25%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	33.5	31	47% / 50%	35	over
2023 W8	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 43%	3	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 24%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	33.5	26	36% / 50%	47	over
2023 W7	Rec	2.5	3	60% / 57%	3	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 25%	1	over
2023 W6	Rec yds	33.5	34	50% / 51%	43	over
2023 W6	Rec	3.5	3	46% / 42%	4	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 22%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	28.5	34	57% / 50%	87	over
2023 W5	Rec	2.5	3	64% / 55%	7	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 26%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	32.5	35	54% / 51%	21	under
2023 W4	Rec	3.5	4	55% / 42%	2	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 27%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	34.5	32	47% / 50%	41	over
2023 W3	Rec	3.5	3	45% / 41%	5	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 30%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec yds	36.5	32	44% / 50%	15	under
2023 W2	Rec	3.5	4	51% / 46%	2	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 25%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	38.5	–	– / 50%	44	over
2023 W1	Rec	3.5	–	– / 47%	2	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Over 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 36.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 51.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 52.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 52.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 55.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 55.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 55.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 43.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 47.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Under 44.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 37.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 37.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Over 40.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Under 40.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W2 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W1 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2024 W18 Over 28.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2024 W17 Under 21.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
2024 W16 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology