QB · MIN · 150 lines since 2023
Kyler Murray Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Kyler Murray, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 18% — we make it 5%
- Line 31.5 pass attempts — we project 29 (P(over) 38%)
- Line 20.5 completions — we project 19 (P(over) 39%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 39%)
- Line 210.5 pass yds — we project 197 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 17.5 rush yds — we project 11 (P(over) 32%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 17, under 16 (33 graded)
- Passing TDs over 8, under 25 (33 graded)
- Rushing yards over 17, under 16 (33 graded)
- Anytime TD over 8, under 25 (33 graded)
- Pass attempts over 3, under 1 (4 graded)
- Completions over 3, under 1 (4 graded)
- Rush attempts over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: Low total (40.5 or less) 0–1 · Play action 3–2 · model 31–27 · Dome team outdoors 6–5 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–1 · Short week 1–0 · Pressure 1–2 · Starters out on defense 5–2 · Man coverage 0–1 · High total (48.5+) 0–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 18% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 31.5 | 29 | 38% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 20.5 | 19 | 39% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 39% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 210.5 | 197 | 44% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 11 | 32% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 205.5 | 197 | 46% / 49% | 247 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 3.3 | 12% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 213.5 | – | – / 50% | 168 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 20.5 | – | – / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 218.5 | – | – / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 22.5 | – | – / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 30.5 | 33 | 63% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 53% / 47% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 219.5 | 233 | 56% / 50% | 220 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 6.5 | 5 | 33% / 45% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 29 | 47% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 46% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 46% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 220.5 | 219 | 49% / 50% | 200 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 54% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 24 | 37% / 49% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 53% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 49% / 48% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 217 | 50% / 50% | 159 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 23 | 40% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 30.5 | 32 | 60% / 49% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 57% / 52% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 219.5 | 247 | 62% / 50% | 220 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 48% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 27 | 48% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 248 | 60% / 50% | 163 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 25 | 47% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 231 | 53% / 49% | 242 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 27 | 26% / 52% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 218 | 45% / 50% | 321 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 21 | 42% / 51% | 32 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 235 | 55% / 50% | 202 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 27 | 54% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 240 | 57% / 50% | 224 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 27 | 52% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 47% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 226 | 48% / 50% | 259 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 26.5 | 26 | 49% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 219 | 47% / 50% | 260 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 20 | 40% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 215.5 | 215 | 50% / 50% | 285 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 25 | 43% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 199.5 | 193 | 46% / 51% | 266 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 29.5 | 26 | 45% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 219.5 | 216 | 48% / 50% | 154 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 29 | 40% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 37% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 206.5 | 192 | 44% / 49% | 307 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 34.5 | 30 | 43% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 219.5 | 209 | 44% / 51% | 145 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 26 | 40% / 50% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 212.5 | 208 | 48% / 50% | 214 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 26 | 40% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 222.5 | 195 | 37% / 50% | 195 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 20 | 30% / 50% | 83 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 247 | 54% / 50% | 142 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 33.5 | 29 | 43% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 232 | 50% / 50% | 207 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 25 | 32% / 52% | 45 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 225.5 | 221 | 48% / 50% | 266 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 24 | 36% / 49% | 59 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 224.5 | 205 | 41% / 50% | 162 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 17 | 23% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 216 | 44% / 49% | 262 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 24 | 38% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 25% / 32% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Pass yds | 221.5 | 205 | 41% / 50% | 232 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 19 | 31% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 37% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Pass yds | 213.5 | 202 | 45% / 48% | 230 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 19 | 25% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 32% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 205 | 45% / 50% | 211 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 14 | 13% / 49% | 49 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 25% / 31% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Pass yds | 206.5 | 193 | 42% / 50% | 145 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 30.5 | 16 | 22% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Pass yds | 218.5 | 204 | 43% / 50% | 256 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 39.5 | 24 | 24% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 216 | 40% / 50% | 214 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 35.5 | 18 | 19% / 49% | 51 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | – | – / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass yds | 220.5 | – | – / 50% | 249 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 24.5 | – | – / 50% | 33 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 205.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 205.5 pass yds (Play action, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 213.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 219.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 220.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 216.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 28.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 20.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Over 219.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 219.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 222.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 224.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 43.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 229.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 224.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 224.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 224.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 225.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 225.5 pass yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 229.5 pass yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 224.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 215.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 215.5 pass yds (Play action, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 199.5 pass yds (Play action, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 29.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 219.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 35.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 206.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 206.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 34.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 219.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 212.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 32.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 222.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 222.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 222.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 30.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Over 237.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology