RB · LAR · 229 lines since 2023
Kyren Williams Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Kyren Williams, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 63% — we make it 58%
- Line 11.5 yds longest rec — we project 14 (P(over) 58%)
- Line 21.5 rec yds — we project 24 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 14.5 rush attempts — we project 14 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 93.5 rush + rec yds — we project 106 (P(over) 60%)
- Line 69.5 rush yds — we project 79 (P(over) 58%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 30, under 17 (47 graded)
- Receiving yards over 22, under 25 (47 graded)
- Receptions over 20, under 27 (47 graded)
- Anytime TD over 34, under 15 (49 graded)
- Rush attempts over 5, under 11 (16 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 8 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 12–14 · Pre-snap motion 8–15 · Starters out on defense 4–3 · Dome team outdoors 6–11 · model 67–51 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–6 · Short week 1–4 · Red-zone defense 4–1 · Middle of the field 1–1 · Explosive plays 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 63% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 14 | 58% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 24 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 57% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 14.5 | 14 | 46% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 93.5 | 106 | 60% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 69.5 | 79 | 58% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 52% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 15 | 55% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 42% | 10 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 57.5 | 74 | 65% / 49% | 80 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 12 | 48% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 41% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 52.5 | 64 | 62% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 12 | 39% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 73 | 59% / 50% | 85 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 65% TD chance | 65% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 16 | 63% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 93 | 80% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 65% TD chance | 65% / 66% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 60% TD chance | 60% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 8.5 | 9.5 | 54% / 48% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 13 | 54% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 60% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 14.5 | 16 | 58% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 82 | 67% / 51% | 92 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 7.5 | 7.2 | 49% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 10 | 45% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 13.5 | 14 | 54% / 48% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 62 | 56% / 50% | 70 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.9 | 56% / 51% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 12 | 54% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 12.5 | 14 | 60% / 52% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 58.5 | 76 | 66% / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.3 | 49% / 48% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 11 | 50% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 14.5 | 16 | 57% / 46% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 85 | 70% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.9 | 53% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 12 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 14.5 | 16 | 59% / 54% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 82 | 67% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 8.5 | 9.2 | 53% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 13 | 57% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 13.5 | 16 | 63% / 48% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 83 | 71% / 51% | 46 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 9.5 | 10 | 53% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 15 | 50% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 13.5 | 15 | 59% / 45% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 74 | 67% / 49% | 91 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 55% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.7 | 47% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 43% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 63.5 | 78 | 63% / 51% | 73 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 9.5 | 11 | 55% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 17 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush att | 16.5 | 17 | 55% / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 87 | 63% / 50% | 114 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 10.5 | 12 | 57% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 23 | 56% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 17.5 | 17 | 46% / 46% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 68.5 | 74 | 56% / 51% | 54 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 9.5 | 11 | 56% / 48% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 18 | 60% / 51% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 16.5 | 18 | 58% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 86 | 65% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.1 | 53% / 48% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 11 | 55% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 60% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 16.5 | 18 | 61% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 88 | 67% / 51% | 65 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 63% TD chance | 63% / 66% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.6 | 55% / 52% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 12 | 54% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 17.5 | 18 | 53% / 46% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 70.5 | 81 | 60% / 49% | 77 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 51% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.8 | 47% / 50% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 9.6 | 50% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 15.5 | 17 | 57% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 61.5 | 64 | 53% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 54% TD chance | 54% / 64% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.6 | 42% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.1 | 46% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 19.5 | 17 | 38% / 48% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 75.5 | 72 | 47% / 50% | 66 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 62% TD chance | 62% / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.4 | 54% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 12 | 58% / 51% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 16.5 | 19 | 62% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 69.5 | 79 | 60% / 50% | 66 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 62% TD chance | 62% / 71% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 6.1 | 37% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 93.5 | 103 | 56% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 61% TD chance | 61% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 7.4 | 43% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 84.5 | 92 | 56% / 50% | 122 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.5 | 40% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 33% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 74.5 | 83 | 58% / 52% | 108 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 63% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.1 | 43% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 67.5 | 81 | 62% / 49% | 87 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 62% TD chance | 62% / 71% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 8.3 | 42% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 81.5 | 88 | 56% / 50% | 104 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 8.6 | 32% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 72.5 | 77 | 54% / 51% | 72 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 59% TD chance | 59% / 67% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 9.4 | 38% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 84.5 | 84 | 50% / 51% | 86 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 64% TD chance | 64% / 69% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 9.7 | 37% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 25% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 86.5 | 86 | 49% / 50% | 62 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 62% TD chance | 62% / 69% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 9.5 | 35% / 50% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 93.5 | 88 | 45% / 50% | 69 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 63% TD chance | 63% / 67% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 46% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 70.5 | 74 | 53% / 50% | 97 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 69% TD chance | 69% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 42% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 91.5 | 91 | 49% / 50% | 76 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 64% TD chance | 64% / 71% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 15 | 44% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 80.5 | 77 | 47% / 49% | 102 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 55% TD chance | 55% / 59% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 43% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 78.5 | 68 | 39% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 53% TD chance | 53% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 14 | 31% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 31% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 61.5 | 58 | 46% / 51% | 89 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 62% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 8.8 | 32% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 27% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 74.5 | 77 | 52% / 52% | 25 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 60% TD chance | 60% / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 14 | 50% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 41% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 60.5 | 71 | 61% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 60% TD chance | 60% / 64% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 15 | 47% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 93.5 | 97 | 52% / 50% | 87 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 59% TD chance | 59% / 65% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 59% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 89.5 | 92 | 52% / 49% | 104 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 70% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 20 | 41% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 30% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 91.5 | 86 | 45% / 50% | 152 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 48% TD chance | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 18 | 47% / 49% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 71.5 | 56 | 34% / 51% | 114 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 51% TD chance | 51% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 13 | 30% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 21% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 64.5 | 69 | 54% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 47% TD chance | 47% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 9.4 | 30% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 62.5 | 57 | 43% / 52% | 143 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 64% TD chance | 64% / 64% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 12 | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 28% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 72 | 56% / 49% | 158 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 60% TD chance | 60% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 16 | 40% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 23% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 54.5 | 67 | 63% / 47% | 53 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 62% TD chance | 62% / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 41% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 56.5 | 73 | 66% / 49% | 103 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 56% TD chance | 56% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 17 | 35% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 29% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 65.5 | 60 | 45% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 59% TD chance | 59% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 7.8 | 18% / 48% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 1 | 10% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 73 | 73% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 14% | 1 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Over 69.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Over 69.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 57.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 57.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 57.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 57.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 57.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 52.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 52.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 52.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 52.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 63.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 14.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 63.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 63.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 56.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 56.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 56.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 56.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 58.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 58.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 58.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 14.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 62.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 14.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 63.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 63.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 63.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 13.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 59.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 59.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 59.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 55.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 55.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 55.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 63.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 63.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 63.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology