WR · LAC · 128 lines since 2023
Ladd McConkey Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Ladd McConkey, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 30% — we make it 19%
- Line 42.5 rec yds — we project 43 (P(over) 50%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 59%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 18, under 18 (36 graded)
- Receptions over 16, under 20 (36 graded)
- Anytime TD over 12, under 24 (36 graded)
- Longest reception over 6, under 10 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 7–5 · Middle of the field 8–4 · model 29–18 · Pre-snap motion 6–4 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Missed tackles 3–3 · Short week 0–2 · Play action 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 30% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 43 | 50% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / – | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 32 | 34% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 47 | 38% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 55% | 4 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 40 | 48% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 54% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 56 | 50% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 18.5 | 20 | 55% / 48% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 41 | 50% / 49% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 38% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 19.5 | 24 | 62% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 54 | 57% / 51% | 43 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 63% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 49% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 41 | 44% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 20.5 | 21 | 52% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 49 | 48% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 50% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 20.5 | 25 | 63% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 56 | 55% / 51% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 65% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 67 | 55% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 63% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 62 | 49% / 50% | 107 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 20.5 | 25 | 64% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 58 | 48% / 50% | 56 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 37% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 57% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 52 | 46% / 50% | 88 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 34% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 21.5 | 26 | 63% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 61 | 51% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 41% / 43% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 40% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 57% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 54 | 39% / 49% | 100 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 23 | 54% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 50 | 44% / 49% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 22.5 | 24 | 54% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 54 | 44% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 5.5 | 4.5 | 35% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 23.5 | 24 | 52% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 58 | 44% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 43% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 24.5 | 25 | 52% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 75.5 | 58 | 34% / 50% | 48 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 56% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 24.5 | 24 | 50% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 63 | 45% / 50% | 74 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 46% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 81 | 57% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 58% / 56% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 71 | 50% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 51% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 69 | 50% / 51% | 87 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 6.5 | 6 | 38% / 41% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 75 | 54% / 50% | 58 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 51% / 53% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 65 | 49% / 48% | 117 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 44% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 64 | 49% / 50% | 83 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 37% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 53 | 45% / 51% | 123 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 48 | 44% / 49% | 52 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 30% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 53 | 47% / 51% | 64 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 56 | 58% / 50% | 111 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 52% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 52 | 48% / 51% | 46 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 40 | 42% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 38 | 50% / 51% | 67 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 31 | 40% / 52% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 30 | 32% / 48% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 38.5 | – | – / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 51% | 5 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 59.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 41.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 46.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 46.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 46.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 46.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 46.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 51.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 51.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 61.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 61.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 61.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 63.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 63.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 59.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 59.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 56.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 60.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 60.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 65.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 65.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 56.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 61.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 61.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 61.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 75.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 71.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 71.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology