QB · BAL · 240 lines since 2023

Lamar Jackson Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Lamar Jackson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 29% — we make it 15%

Over/under record by market

Passing yards over 27, under 23 (50 graded)
Passing TDs over 27, under 23 (50 graded)
Rushing yards over 20, under 30 (50 graded)
Anytime TD over 10, under 40 (50 graded)
Pass attempts over 4, under 9 (13 graded)
Completions over 3, under 10 (13 graded)
Rush attempts over 4, under 9 (13 graded)

Our calls on him: model 65–44 · High total (48.5+) 10–15 · Freezing 1–2 · Pressure 5–11 · Starters out on defense 4–4 · Big favourite (6.5+) 3–2 · Short week 2–3 · Low total (40.5 or less) 3–2 · Wind 15+ mph 2–2 · Man coverage 1–1 · Play action 0–5

Line vs actual vs our projection

Lamar Jackson prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 29%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 30%	0	under
2026 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	48% / 52%	2	over
2026 W4	Pass yds	213.5	208	48% / 50%	222	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	30.5	30	50% / 50%	20	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 33%	0	under
2026 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1.5	50% / 57%	2	over
2026 W3	Pass yds	239.5	256	57% / 50%	186	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	40.5	28	30% / 50%	50	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 33%	0	under
2026 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 46%	1	under
2026 W2	Pass yds	209.5	229	59% / 50%	235	over
2026 W2	Rush yds	38.5	27	33% / 50%	34	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 28%	1	over
2026 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 47%	1	under
2026 W1	Pass yds	218.5	227	53% / 50%	324	over
2026 W1	Rush yds	39.5	23	24% / 51%	40	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	–	– / 24%	0	under
2025 W18	Pass att	27.5	–	– / 48%	18	under
2025 W18	Cmp	17.5	–	– / 51%	11	under
2025 W18	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 38%	3	over
2025 W18	Pass yds	206.5	–	– / 50%	238	over
2025 W18	Rush att	5.5	–	– / 49%	4	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	28.5	–	– / 51%	9	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 26%	0	under
2025 W16	Pass att	27.5	28	55% / 50%	10	under
2025 W16	Cmp	17.5	18	52% / 52%	7	under
2025 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 53%	0	under
2025 W16	Pass yds	212.5	215	51% / 50%	101	under
2025 W16	Rush att	6.5	5	31% / 46%	2	under
2025 W16	Rush yds	37.5	27	32% / 50%	7	under
2025 W15	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 31%	0	under
2025 W15	Pass att	29.5	30	54% / 49%	12	under
2025 W15	Cmp	19.5	19	47% / 47%	8	under
2025 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	1	46% / 54%	2	over
2025 W15	Pass yds	228.5	239	55% / 50%	150	under
2025 W15	Rush att	6.5	6	39% / 47%	2	under
2025 W15	Rush yds	33.5	30	44% / 50%	26	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 26%	1	over
2025 W14	Pass att	27.5	30	64% / 49%	35	over
2025 W14	Cmp	18.5	19	55% / 47%	19	over
2025 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 47%	1	under
2025 W14	Pass yds	221.5	221	50% / 50%	219	under
2025 W14	Rush att	6.5	6	40% / 42%	7	over
2025 W14	Rush yds	25.5	28	54% / 51%	43	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 32%	0	under
2025 W13	Pass att	27.5	29	62% / 49%	32	over
2025 W13	Cmp	19.5	19	46% / 52%	17	under
2025 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 64%	0	under
2025 W13	Pass yds	233.5	247	55% / 51%	246	over
2025 W13	Rush att	5.5	6	54% / 52%	6	over
2025 W13	Rush yds	25.5	32	60% / 51%	27	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 33%	0	under
2025 W12	Pass att	26.5	28	58% / 52%	23	under
2025 W12	Cmp	17.5	18	56% / 52%	13	under
2025 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	2	58% / 60%	0	under
2025 W12	Pass yds	210.5	231	59% / 50%	153	under
2025 W12	Rush att	6.5	6	46% / 47%	7	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	33.5	36	54% / 49%	11	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 24%	0	under
2025 W11	Pass att	25.5	26	54% / 52%	25	under
2025 W11	Cmp	17.5	17	49% / 50%	14	under
2025 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 50%	0	under
2025 W11	Pass yds	204.5	185	40% / 50%	193	under
2025 W11	Rush att	7.5	6	33% / 49%	4	under
2025 W11	Rush yds	37.5	32	42% / 48%	10	under
2025 W10	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 28%	0	under
2025 W10	Pass att	27.5	29	56% / 49%	29	over
2025 W10	Cmp	19.5	19	46% / 49%	17	under
2025 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	2	55% / 60%	1	under
2025 W10	Pass yds	224.5	227	51% / 51%	176	under
2025 W10	Rush att	7.5	6	27% / 44%	9	over
2025 W10	Rush yds	38.5	34	43% / 50%	36	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 40%	0	under
2025 W9	Pass att	27.5	29	59% / 50%	23	under
2025 W9	Cmp	19.5	19	48% / 50%	18	under
2025 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	2	58% / 61%	4	over
2025 W9	Pass yds	231.5	246	56% / 50%	204	under
2025 W9	Rush att	6.5	6	42% / 48%	5	under
2025 W9	Rush yds	35.5	42	57% / 50%	14	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 31%	0	under
2025 W4	Pass att	28.5	30	59% / 49%	20	under
2025 W4	Cmp	19.5	20	52% / 48%	14	under
2025 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	2	57% / 55%	1	under
2025 W4	Pass yds	226.5	229	52% / 50%	147	under
2025 W4	Rush att	7.5	6	24% / 55%	6	under
2025 W4	Rush yds	45.5	34	34% / 49%	48	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 38%	0	under
2025 W3	Pass att	28.5	31	63% / 52%	27	under
2025 W3	Cmp	19.5	20	55% / 47%	21	over
2025 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	2	61% / 62%	3	over
2025 W3	Pass yds	232.5	258	60% / 51%	288	over
2025 W3	Rush att	7.5	5	19% / 50%	7	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	45.5	36	38% / 50%	35	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 38%	0	under
2025 W2	Pass att	26.5	28	62% / 50%	29	over
2025 W2	Cmp	17.5	19	60% / 51%	19	over
2025 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	2	57% / 56%	4	over
2025 W2	Pass yds	212.5	243	63% / 51%	225	over
2025 W2	Rush att	7.5	6	36% / 55%	2	under
2025 W2	Rush yds	46.5	45	48% / 50%	13	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 33%	1	over
2025 W1	Pass att	28.5	32	67% / 50%	19	under
2025 W1	Cmp	19.5	21	59% / 49%	14	under
2025 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	2	53% / 53%	2	over
2025 W1	Pass yds	229.5	250	59% / 50%	209	under
2025 W1	Rush att	8.5	6	17% / 46%	6	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	47.5	35	34% / 49%	70	over
2024 W18	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 36%	0	under
2024 W18	Pass TDs	1.5	2	66% / 60%	2	over
2024 W18	Pass yds	206.5	234	62% / 50%	217	over
2024 W18	Rush yds	42.5	54	63% / 49%	63	over
2024 W17	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 34%	1	over
2024 W17	Pass TDs	1.5	2	60% / 57%	2	over
2024 W17	Pass yds	224.5	239	57% / 51%	168	under
2024 W17	Rush yds	46.5	40	41% / 50%	87	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 33%	0	under
2024 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	2	56% / 50%	3	over
2024 W16	Pass yds	226.5	232	53% / 50%	207	under
2024 W16	Rush yds	49.5	41	38% / 51%	22	under
2024 W15	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 38%	0	under
2024 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	2	63% / 52%	5	over
2024 W15	Pass yds	215.5	249	63% / 51%	290	over
2024 W15	Rush yds	45.5	50	56% / 50%	65	over
2024 W13	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 34%	0	under
2024 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 50%	2	over
2024 W13	Pass yds	222.5	243	58% / 50%	237	over
2024 W13	Rush yds	43.5	37	40% / 49%	79	over
2024 W12	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 33%	1	over
2024 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	2	57% / 53%	2	over
2024 W12	Pass yds	236.5	262	60% / 51%	177	under
2024 W12	Rush yds	46.5	38	39% / 52%	15	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 29%	0	under
2024 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 51%	1	under
2024 W11	Pass yds	235.5	245	54% / 50%	207	under
2024 W11	Rush yds	41.5	38	45% / 50%	46	over
2024 W10	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 40%	0	under
2024 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	2	60% / 56%	4	over
2024 W10	Pass yds	238.5	266	61% / 50%	290	over
2024 W10	Rush yds	46.5	47	50% / 51%	33	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 37%	0	under
2024 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	2	58% / 48%	3	over
2024 W9	Pass yds	217.5	261	68% / 50%	280	over
2024 W9	Rush yds	46.5	51	56% / 50%	4	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 41%	0	under
2024 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	2	53% / 43%	2	over
2024 W8	Pass yds	211.5	221	55% / 52%	289	over
2024 W8	Rush yds	48.5	50	52% / 50%	46	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 45%	0	under
2024 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	2	52% / 50%	5	over
2024 W7	Pass yds	231.5	277	68% / 51%	281	over
2024 W7	Rush yds	53.5	48	43% / 51%	52	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 44%	0	under
2024 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	2	54% / 53%	1	under
2024 W6	Pass yds	221.5	257	64% / 51%	323	over
2024 W6	Rush yds	55.5	54	47% / 50%	40	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 36%	0	under
2024 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 43%	4	over
2024 W5	Pass yds	209.5	219	55% / 50%	348	over
2024 W5	Rush yds	58.5	48	38% / 50%	55	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 40%	1	over
2024 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	44% / 40%	2	over
2024 W4	Pass yds	204.5	231	63% / 51%	156	under
2024 W4	Rush yds	57.5	46	36% / 51%	54	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 36%	1	over
2024 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	43% / 43%	1	under
2024 W3	Pass yds	211.5	233	59% / 49%	182	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	55.5	44	35% / 51%	87	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 38%	0	under
2024 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	48% / 43%	1	under
2024 W2	Pass yds	213.5	235	59% / 50%	247	over
2024 W2	Rush yds	49.5	46	46% / 49%	45	under
2024 W1	Any TD	–	17% TD chance	17% / 31%	0	under
2024 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	41% / 40%	1	under
2024 W1	Pass yds	215.5	227	56% / 50%	273	over
2024 W1	Rush yds	50.5	31	22% / 51%	122	over
2023 W17	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 43%	0	under
2023 W17	Pass TDs	1.5	1	47% / 43%	5	over
2023 W17	Pass yds	226.5	248	61% / 50%	321	over
2023 W17	Rush yds	52.5	39	31% / 50%	35	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 33%	0	under
2023 W16	Pass TDs	1.5	1	36% / 38%	2	over
2023 W16	Pass yds	218.5	226	54% / 50%	252	over
2023 W16	Rush yds	55.5	34	21% / 51%	45	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 41%	0	under
2023 W15	Pass TDs	1.5	1	39% / 39%	1	under
2023 W15	Pass yds	214.5	248	67% / 50%	171	under
2023 W15	Rush yds	47.5	37	34% / 51%	97	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 45%	0	under
2023 W14	Pass TDs	1.5	1	41% / 37%	3	over
2023 W14	Pass yds	198.5	244	70% / 50%	316	over
2023 W14	Rush yds	48.5	37	34% / 50%	70	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 43%	0	under
2023 W12	Pass TDs	1.5	1	37% / 49%	1	under
2023 W12	Pass yds	236.5	271	64% / 50%	177	under
2023 W12	Rush yds	44.5	37	39% / 50%	39	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 45%	0	under
2023 W11	Pass TDs	1.5	1	38% / 44%	2	over
2023 W11	Pass yds	226.5	252	61% / 50%	264	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	47.5	34	30% / 51%	54	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 38%	0	under
2023 W10	Pass TDs	1.5	1	33% / 34%	1	under
2023 W10	Pass yds	200.5	204	52% / 50%	223	over
2023 W10	Rush yds	42.5	33	36% / 51%	41	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 51%	0	under
2023 W9	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 40%	0	under
2023 W9	Pass yds	225.5	258	62% / 50%	187	under
2023 W9	Rush yds	45.5	34	31% / 51%	60	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 48%	0	under
2023 W8	Pass TDs	1.5	1	42% / 47%	1	under
2023 W8	Pass yds	235.5	244	54% / 50%	157	under
2023 W8	Rush yds	45.5	41	43% / 50%	17	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 44%	1	over
2023 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	33% / 35%	3	over
2023 W7	Pass yds	219.5	217	49% / 50%	357	over
2023 W7	Rush yds	55.5	32	19% / 51%	36	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 45%	0	under
2023 W6	Pass TDs	1.5	1	40% / 39%	1	under
2023 W6	Pass yds	219.5	215	48% / 51%	223	over
2023 W6	Rush yds	45.5	37	37% / 51%	62	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 43%	0	under
2023 W5	Pass TDs	1.5	1	32% / 36%	0	under
2023 W5	Pass yds	200.5	223	61% / 50%	236	over
2023 W5	Rush yds	48.5	30	23% / 50%	45	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 40%	1	over
2023 W4	Pass TDs	1.5	1	31% / 34%	2	over
2023 W4	Pass yds	191.5	208	58% / 48%	186	under
2023 W4	Rush yds	50.5	31	23% / 50%	27	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 47%	1	over
2023 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	33% / 44%	0	under
2023 W3	Pass yds	220.5	242	60% / 50%	202	under
2023 W3	Rush yds	49.5	25	17% / 50%	101	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 32%	0	under
2023 W2	Pass TDs	1.5	1	26% / 37%	2	over
2023 W2	Pass yds	212.5	200	44% / 50%	237	over
2023 W2	Rush yds	45.5	17	8% / 49%	54	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 48%	0	under
2023 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	–	– / 44%	0	under
2023 W1	Pass yds	221.5	–	– / 56%	169	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	50.5	–	– / 50%	38	under

Our calls

2026 W3 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 239.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 239.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Over 209.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 218.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 39.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Under 206.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 27.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 212.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 37.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 29.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 29.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 19.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 228.5 pass yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 228.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 228.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 228.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 33.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 27.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 221.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 27.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 27.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 27.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 19.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 233.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 233.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 233.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 26.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 26.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 17.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 210.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 210.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 25.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 25.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 17.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 204.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 204.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 204.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 204.5 pass yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 37.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 27.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 27.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 224.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 224.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 27.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 27.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology