WR · DEN · 90 lines since 2023
Lil'Jordan Humphrey Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Lil'Jordan Humphrey, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 10, under 10 (20 graded)
- Receptions over 7, under 11 (18 graded)
- Anytime TD over 5, under 40 (45 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 1 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 11–21 · Short week 1–2 · Starters out on defense 1–3 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Freezing 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | … |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | – | void |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | – | void |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 12.5 | 8.5 | 40% / 48% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 9.8 | 33% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 6.5 | 9.9 | 58% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 12 | 59% / 50% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 73% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.0 | 44% / 51% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 6.9 | 42% / 49% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 31% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 29 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 14 | 64% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 17 | 61% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 22 | 54% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 38% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 21 | 50% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 17 | 41% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 14 | 70% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 19 | 42% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 15 | 41% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 13 | 33% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 6.6 | 28% / 49% | 37 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 2.3 | 29% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 2.3 | 29% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 20% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 20% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 33% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 33% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 44% / 62% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 44% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 1 | over |
Our calls
- 2025 W17 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 20.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 7.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 7.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 11.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 19.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 4.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 23.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 20.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 11.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology